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Jeff Siegel

'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'

Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
Horse owner, breeder and XpressbetTV analyst, Jeff Siegel also happens to be Southern California's premier handicapper. Check his blog each day before you play!
February 17, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Santa Anita

Monday, February 17, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Wind Tartare; 3-Playa Chica

 Forecast: Playa Chica is a first-off-the-claim play from the A. Lerner barn, which boasts sensational stats (41%) with this angle.  She drops from $35,000 to $25,000, which normally might be considered suspicious but not with this trainer and could find herself on or near the lead in a race that projects to be slowly run early.  In an open fray, the daughter of English Channel seems as good as any.  Wind Tartare is winless in seven starts over the local lawn but returns to her proper level and has hit the board in four of her last five starts.  She’ll be running on late.  Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Playa Chica.

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Wilshire Dude; 4-Conquest Cobra

Forecast: Conquest Cobra, a game winner of a $12,500 claiming sprint here last month, moves up a notch and stretches out again after a series of sprint races that should have him sharp enough to be comfortably placed on or near the lead.  He’s won at this trip in the past and picks up hot-riding F. Prat.  Wilshire Dude, freshened since mid-December, has a big look off his clever score at Golden Gate Fields two runs back.  He’s won on this main track in the past and should draft into a favorable pace-stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top going to Conquest Cobra.

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​​RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pretty Point; 3-Kittyhawk Lass

Forecast: ​Pretty Point, freshened since finishing a nice third in the American Oaks-G1 on opening day in late December when she earned a career top speed figure, returns to the first-level allowance ranks and switches to F. Prat.  From her rail post the daughter of Point of Entry is assured a good ground-saving trip and with a repeat of her last race she should be along in time.  Kittyhawk Lass has rising speed figures and a good stalking style.  With another forward move, she’ll be right there.  We’ll give Pretty Point the edge on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

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​​​​​RACE 4: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Ce Ce

Forecast: Ce Ce is infinitely faster than her rivals in this entry-level allowance sprint, so if the daughter of Elusive Quality is anywhere close to being fit she’ll beat this field at a very short price.  The M. McCarthy-trained filly won her debut over this track last spring so we know she can fire fresh, and while her current work tab isn’t flashy she should be tight enough to return a winner.  At 4/5 on the morning line she doesn’t offer any wagering value other than as a short price rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Blackout; 7-Castle

Forecast: Blackout goes for new connections after being claimed out of a winning effort at this price ($32,000) over this course and distance last month.  F. Prat stays aboard for J. Mullins and should have this French-bred gelding in an ideal stalking spot from his rail post position.  The numbers are solid, so let’s expect a repeat score.  We’ll also toss in Castle, winner of the California Flag Stakes for state-bred turf sprinters here during the fall meeting.  Fourth earlier this meeting vs. tougher, the M. Glatt-trained gelding drops for the money run, retains A. Cedillo, and should have every chance from a pace-prompting/setting trip in a field without a whole lot of sprint speed.

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RACE 6: Post 2:58 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Big Hoof Dynamite; 5-Govenor Cinch

Forecast: Big Hoof Dynamite just broke his maiden in a $50,000 seller over this main track and distance and equaled his career top speed figure.  Since then he’s joined the E. Truman barn and really won’t have to improve much at all to score right back in this $40,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds.  Govenor Cinch is worth including in rolling exotic play as well. On pure numbers he’s right there with ‘Dynamite and this return to the main track and to the claiming ranks makes him a proper fit.

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RACE 7: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Apache Princess; 3-Kentan Road

Forecast: Kentan Road is clearly the controlling speed in a race that doesn’t have much of it, so we’re expecting the daughter of Into Mischief to take control early without need of urging and then have every chance to dominate throughout.  She was second to unbeaten Jolie Olympic over this course and distance last month and she’s facing nobody near that tough today.  Apache Princess always has been most dangerous as a late-running sprinter and should be heard from in the final furlong.  She was a strong third place effort in the Sunshine Millions Turf here last month but will need some help up front to have her best chance, and on paper her main rival projects to have an easy time of it up front.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Kentan Road on top.

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RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Ruby Bradley; 4-Atina; 6-Tiz Wonderfully

Forecast: The nightcap is a $16,000 restricted (nw-3) middle distance main track claimer for fillies and mares and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Bay Area invader Atina seems well-spotted for a major effort; the Argentine-bred mare is a fit on speed figures, has winning connections, and owns a good stalking style that should ensure a trouble-free trip.  Ruby Bradley and Tiz Wonderfully, two-three finishers in a similar affair last month, figure in the battle right back, with the former, a state-bred stakes winner and successful twice over the local dirt strip but not particularly fast on speed figures, likely to get plenty of play. We’ll try to get by using just these three but if you can afford to spread deeper, go right ahead.

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