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Jeff Siegel

'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'

Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
Horse owner, breeder and XpressbetTV analyst, Jeff Siegel also happens to be Southern California's premier handicapper. Check his blog each day before you play!
May 24, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, May 24, 2019

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sybil’s Kitty; 3-Dulverton Darling; 5-Kittyhawk Lass

 Forecast: Kittyhawk Lass is progressing with racing and should produce another forward move in this modest maiden $50,000 nine furlong turf claimer for fillies and mares.  She has a dangerous closing kick that should be effective at this level and at this nine furlong distance.  Dulverton Darling received no action (21-1) in her debut in a similar event but didn’t run badly, finishing with some interest while having every right to need the outing.  She gets an extra furlong to work with today and hails from a barn that has excellent stats with second-time starters.  Sybil’s Kitty flashed a bit of speed in her debut sprinting on dirt vs. straight maidens and today stretches out, drops in class, switches to grass, and picks up Prat.  She’s likely the controlling speed and given that role could be dangerous.  Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics while assigning the nod on top to Kittyhawk Lass

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Oliver; 5-Toothless Wonder

 Forecast: Toothless Wonder just won nicely in a $25,000 claimer and this class hike to the $50,000 level by Hess can be taken as a sign of confidence.  The son of Street Boss is a fit on speed figures and may have a bit more upside than his main challenger, Oliver, who couldn’t capitalize on a golden rail trip when a close third in a similar affair earlier this month.  The son of Papa Clem should be part of the pace and have every chance once again.

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​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-This Is the One; 8-Vegan

 Forecast: ​This Is the One is a first-timer bred to win right now (Smiling Tiger) and has trained like she’s fit and ready to win at first asking in this four and one-half furlong sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies.  The main contender and likely favorite is Vegan, beaten as the choice in her debut two weeks ago while on the pace before weakening late, but adding Lasix today.  These are the two main players with preference on top going to This Is the One

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Tikkun Olam; 6-Of Good Report

Forecast: This starter optional claimer over a mile on grass drew just six entrants, with the main contention drawn outside.  Tikkun Olam shortens up a furlong, is solid on numbers, and should draft into a good stalking spot.  A repeat of his race before last over this course and distance might be good enough.  Of Good Report broke his maiden in game style over the all-weather Golden Gate main track last month while earning a career top speed figure.  If he can duplicate that type of effort on grass, the son of Twirling Candy should be tough to beat.  We’ll try to get by using just these two with a slight preference on top to ‘Olam.

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​​RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Fawree; 4-Dukes Up

Forecast: This main track miler for $20,000 claimers should boil down to two main players, with Fawree getting top billing in his first start since joining the Sadler barn.  The Candy Ride gelding drops to his lowest level ever following a disappointing effort over the Golden Gate Fields synthetic surface in late March, but with the return to dirt he should be capable of snapping back to winning form.  A break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy Velez is another positive factor, and he should draft into a comfortable pace-pressing trip from his ideal number three post-position.  Dukes Up missed as the favorite when runner-up in a recent $16,000 claimer, but he’s a four-time winner over the local dirt track and retains Prat, so improvement is likely.  The Glatt-trained son of Include is the most dangerous of the closers but will need a bit of help up front to compliment his style.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Mongolian Window; 5-Pride’s Gold; 8-Nonna Gianna

Forecast: ​First-level allowance fillies and mares meet over nine furlongs on grass in an open affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Pride’s Gold is fresh off the plane from England after a series of good all-weather races when facing decent handicappers, most recently winning under 136 lbs. in mid-March.  She gets Prat and Lasix for her U.S. debut and shouldn’t have any problem with the return to grass.  Nonna Gianna is a sharp-as-a-tack Northern California invader still eligible to his condition after recently winning a non-winners of two all-weather affair in good style with a pace-prompting trip.  Today’s extra half-furlong won’t be an issue if she can settle in behind the leaders, get some cover, and respond when it counts.  Mongolian Window can be tough to catch if not pressured on the lead, and from where she’s drawn the daughter of Drosselmeyer surely will employ gate-to-wire tactics.  The nine furlong trip might be stretching her limit but on numbers she’s a fit.

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RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Dark Vader; 6-Divisor; 7-Two Thirty Five

Forecast: Three comebackers comprise the bulk of the contention in allowance optional claimer over a mile on the main track.  Dark Vader hasn’t been seen since finishing fifth in the Indiana Derby last summer, but his works indicate he’s plenty fit and his form suggests that if he returns as well as he’ll be strong factor throughout.  A prior winner over this main track and with good tactical speed to take full advantage of his inside draw, the Eurton-trained colt has shown the ability to fire fresh in the past.  Divisor makes his first start since September and the D’Amato-trained gelding is fast on figures, training well, and hails from a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners.  Two Thirty Five has won three of five career outings over the Santa Anita main track and gets Prat for his first outing since last October.  His work tab indicates he might be a race away, but on his best day he’s a contender so we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver.

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​​RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Powder; 10-Duranga

Forecast: Powder is the kind of horse you’ll always try to beat; she’s failed as the favorite in each of her last four starts and was a voided claim two runs back for $32,000.  Today she shows up in a $10,000 claimer, her lowest level ever, and removes blinkers, so it may be now or never for the Vallejo-trained daughter of Slew’s Tiznow.  You can include her in your rolling exotics if you like, but the main push goes to Duranga, comfortably drawn outside and in good form for Miller after finishing third in a slightly tougher spot in early April.  Two of her four career wins have been accomplished over this main track, and a recent healthy series of workouts gives reason to believe she’s ready for another typical honest effort.

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