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Jeff Siegel

'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'

Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
Horse owner, breeder and XpressbetTV analyst, Jeff Siegel also happens to be Southern California's premier handicapper. Check his blog each day before you play!
March 27, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Santa Anita

Friday, March 27, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report (PDF)

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Brix; 5-Caerulean

Forecast: Caerulean didn’t run badly in his debut, overcoming a bit of a slow start to wind up a respectable fourth, and the B. Cecil-trained colt seems likely to produce a forward move with the switch to grass in a below par state-bred maiden special weight sprint. The son of Square Eddie should have more room for improvement then the 9/5 morning line favorite, Brix, a R. Baltas-trained gelding who already is an eight-race maiden and was a non-threatening runner-up over this course and distance vs. similar earlier this month. While this son of Twirling Candy has a decided edge on speed figures over Caerulean and therefore will get plenty of play, he is what he is.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Caerulean on top.

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RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Top of the Game; 3-Camino de Estrella

 Forecast: Camino de Estrella, second in his last pair at Turf Paradise and with speed figures that make him a fit at this level on this circuit, always has been genuine and consistent (first or second in 11 of 25 career starts) and shows a prior over the Santa Anita main track.  The veteran Mineshaft gelding has enough tactical speed to be within range and then have his chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home.  Top of the Game had his four race local winning streak snapped when for new connections he was vanned north for a couple unproductive outings over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface.  Back in familiar surroundings today, reunited with “win rider” J. Velez, and returning to his claim level, the R. France-trained gelding should be given a chance to get back on track.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but have an extra ticket or two keying Camino de Estrella on top.

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RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-K P Whirlwind; 2-Destiny’s Journey

Forecast: K P Whirlwind returns to the mid-level claiming ranks and seems primed for a top effort in her first with blinkers for a barn that has excellent stats with the hood-on angle.  The daughter of Congrats has displayed eagerness in the a.m. of late and from the rail should draft into a perfect ground-saving, second flight trip.  With hot-riding U. Rispoli staying aboard, the J. Mullins-trained filly seems primed for a career top effort.  The S. Knapp-trained Destiny’s Journey has been protected in starter’s allowance company ever since she graduated in a maiden $30,000 event last summer, and on pure numbers owns a distinct advantage on ‘Whirlwind.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but since we’re expecting K P Whirlwind to improve a bunch we’ll key her on top in a few extra tickets.

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RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-Blackout

Forecast: Blackout was claimed back by P. Miller in a show of confidence and the veteran gelding, after missing at 6/5 in a similar race over this course and distance last month, gets a chance to make amends while switching to U. Rispoli.  Always most effective as a late-running grass sprinter and a two-time winner over the local lawn, the French-bred veteran projects to draft into an ideal pace-stalking position in a race that contains two committed speed types (Restless Rambler, C Dub).  At 5/2 on the morning line, let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-Tromador

Forecast: Tromador seems the logical top selection in his first-off-the-claim for R. Hanson while being wheeled back at the same restricted (nw-2) $12,500 level after finishing a close third earlier this month.  The barn has excellent stats with this maneuver, so the lightly-raced son of Exchange Rate, a maiden claiming winner over this main track in January, should fire his best shot.  With the late scratching of the other main contender, Santrapa, we’ll make Tromador a straight play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tig Tog; 5-Kittyhawk Lass

Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares.  Tig Tog, first off the claim for V. Cerin (always dangerous with this maneuver), projects to enjoy a perfect ground-saving trip from her rail post position and seems capable of regaining her winning form with a repeat of her race before last.  The Irish-bred mare switches to A. Cedillo, and in a race that should have good-to-fast early fractions she could produce the last run.  Kittyhawk Lass drops to her lowest level ever and is strictly the one to beat.  The M. Puype-trained filly shortens from nine furlongs to a flat mile – her preferred distance – and like Tig Tog figures to benefit from an extreme race-shape that is likely to compliment her closing kick.

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RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Merneith

Forecast: Merneith has done nothing but burn money in two career outings, finishing second in her debut at 20 cents on the dollar and then missing by a nose at 6/5 in her next outing while earning okay but not great speed figures in each start.  She figures to get hammered again from her cozy outside draw in this extended sprint for maiden fillies, and with the switch to M. Smith will have every chance to control the race from gate to wire.  At 6/5 on the morning line, the daughter of American Pharoah can be used as a short priced rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

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​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Much More Halo; 6-Absolute Unit

Forecast: The finale is a maiden turf miler that should boil down to the two favorites.  Much More Halo, the second choice on the morning line at 5/2, ran the best race of his four race career over a mile on grass at Del Mar in November and gets those conditions today after continuing to impressive in his morning workouts.  Stride-for-stride with graded stakes winner A Thousand Words in a recent team drill, the B. Baffert-trained son of More Than Ready likely will try gate-to-wire tactics in a race that doesn’t have much speed signed on, and if runs to his drills he may never look back.  Absolute Unit, second in his last pair and with numbers that fit, retains F. Prat and should be forwardly placed with dead aim throughout.  We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press with Much More Halo on top.

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