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Jeff Siegel

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Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
Horse owner, breeder and HRTV analyst Jeff Siegel also happens to be Southern California's premier handicapper. Check his blog each day before you play!
March 28, 2015

An intriguing Saturday program begins with a high-priced maiden claiming miler for older fillies and mares.  #4 See Through drops into a claimer for the first time and should really appreciate the softer company.  She has numbers that can win but will be making her first career start over a conventional dirt surface.  #7 Kristinite remains above her claim level for Spawr – a good sign – and stretches out to a distance she should be able to handle.  This, too, will be her first start on dirt.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise won’t get too involved in what amounts to a guessing game.

The second race is a $25,000 claiming miler for sophomore fillies.  #2 Take Back Spring, first off the claim for Mulhall, stretches out to what should be her favorite distance so we’re going to assume improvement will follow.  We like her on top but we’ll also toss in #6 Racing for Chasen, a class dropper in the Abrams stable with a few back speed figures that will put her in the hunt.

Maiden $30,000 claiming 3-year-olds sprint five and one-half furlongs in the third race.  #4 Hit a Homerun has done enough good work in the morning to warrant a serious look in a soft field; the son of Ministers Wild Card hails from a barn that can be very tricky with first-timers so we’ll classified this one as a “must use.”  #8 Coach John, a strong second in his debut, has every right to improve off that race and is strictly the one to beat.

First-level allowance fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the fourth race, an event made to order for #1 Anniversary Kitty.  Proven over the course and a prototype late-running sprinter, the daughter of Tribal Rule switches to Garcia and should be able to produce the last run.  We like her as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Maiden fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fifth race, with #8 Codacious an obvious standout.  A strong third in a fast, highly-rated race last month, the Sise-trained filly figures to continue her improving pattern and it will take something fairly decent to deny her.  She’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single, especially with the switch to Bejarano.

The sixth race is a deep first-level allowance sprint that requires a bit of a spread.  #7 Frensham won a state-bred allowance sprint recently with a strong number and a similar effort today will make him tough right back.  #2 I B Mike is genuine and consistent and a solid fit on numbers; he switches to Baze and should be in the thick of things throughout.  #12 Kafister earned a nice figure beating a starter’s allowance field recently and has always loved this main track (five wins in eight starts).  He’s drawn comfortably outside and should inherit an ideal pace stalking position.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Frensham on top.

We’ll go three-deep in the seventh race, a starter’s handicap for fillies and mares.  #4 Handfull seeks her fourth straight score and there’s no reason she can’t extend her streak for Hollendorfer.  Her Bay Area numbers are solid and if she establishes the pace without pressure she could be long gone again.  Her impost (l23 lbs.) is the only concern.  #2 Jade With Envy, first off the claim for Baltas, stretches out and may like this nine furlong trip.  She should be running on late.  #8 Grandiose Tactics, first off the claim for Sadler, can handle any surface and this barn has lights-out stats with this angle.  Baze should have her in a perfect pace-stalking spot.

The featured Tokyo City Cup goes as the eighth race; it’s a mile and one-half main track marathon that looks ideal for #4 Bronzo.  He should handle the trip and won’t have Shared Belief to worry about today.  #8 Sky Kingdom won this race last year but has been away since October; if ready, he’ll certainly be a factor.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets using Bronzo.

The finale is a maiden special weight turf miler and we’re very much intrigued with the Mandella first-time starter #1 Volume.  He’s done plenty of good work in the a.m. and this isn’t the strongest field we’ve seen, so let’s try the fresh face.  #2 Nakamoto shortens to a mile, retains Pedroza, and lands a good inside post.  This should be his best effort.  #3 Rockin Robin has room to improve and figures to be a factor late.

 

 

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