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Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Tuesday, July 4, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Algorhythmic has turned into a completely different mare since being claimed by Mike Machowsky and she’ll be a short price again to extend her winning streak to four in this second-level allowance sprint down the hill. The daughter of Vronsky boasts an enormous edge over her rivals in the speed figure department and should go about her business over a course she practically owns. In an otherwise unplayable race, she’s a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Southern Mischief; 7-Tiki Bar Logic
Southern Mischief is re-equipped with blinkers, switches to leading rider Evin Roman, and drops to the maiden $75,000 level, all positive factors that make the Bob Baffert-trained filly the one to beat in the second race. We’ll also include Tiki Bar Logic, a fit on numbers despite moving up from the maiden $40,000 level after finishing a good runner-up (while more than six clear of the rest) last month in a career top performance. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Shackleford should enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Causeforcommotion; 5-Arrowsphere; 8-Lyrics
The third race is a maiden special weight nine furlong turf event for fillies and mares. Causeforcommotion, nosed out in a tough beat vs. similar, has rising speed figures and is likely to continue to improve with experience and distance. She retains Roman, lands a good inside post, and should draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position. Lyrics, a close third in the same race Causeforcommotion exits, projects to enjoy a nice pace-prompting trip and have every chance to continue her improving pattern. Arrowsphere, in the money in her last three but a beaten choice in her most recent start, regains Rafael Bejarano and could find herself on the lead while stretching out again for trainer Peter Eurton. She might be distance-challenged but if not pressured early could take this field a pretty long way. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Causeforcommotion on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Percy’s Bluff; 6-Forest Blue
The fourth race is a starter’s handicap for $16,000 claimers at the seldom-used sprint distance of five furlongs. Percy’s Bluff returns to his favorite trip after a couple of route efforts up north and the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding can beat this field with a repeat of his sharp score over this track and distance three races back. He’s reunited with Flavin Prat, who was aboard the Washington-bred gelding in that victory in mid-March, and with a remarkable lifetime record of 14 wins from 33 lifetime starts the son of Raise the Bluff always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent. Forest Blue is fast on figures and the likely favorite despite just missing as the choice when runner-up in an allowance event last month. He’s drawn comfortably outside and should inherit a nice pace-stalking position. We’ll give slight preference on top to Percy’s Bluff but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Atomic Action; 2-Getoffmyback; 6-True Ranger
The fifth race kicks off the Pick-6 – today is closing day so they have to give it away – and looks fairly competitive. Getoffmyback missed by a head vs. similar in his race before last and then was overmatched vs. $25,000 foes in his most recent outing. Back facing $12,500 restricted company today, the Peter Miller-trained gelding seems the likely choice and one to beat. True Ranger, nosed out in a similar affair last month, should be closing well and with some help up front might make some noise in the final furlong. Atomic Act takes a sharp drop in class seeking his proper level and if leaves cleanly from the rail the Jeff Bonde-trained gelding should be a strong pace presence throughout. A repeat of his maiden claiming win two runs back puts him in the hunt. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but have a few extra tickets keying Getoffmyback on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Om; 5-Alert Bay
Om hasn’t been out since finishing third as the favorite in the Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar last November but before that ran the race of his life when missing by a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Mile over this course and distance earlier that month. Training like he’s fit and ready, the Dan Hendricks-trained son of Munnings has fired fresh in the past and should be hard to beat. Alert Bay, a tough-as-nails gelding, loves the local lawn and looks primed for another major effort. He’s won 14 of 32 lifetime and always lays his body down. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press using Om on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Sunset Seven
Maiden state-bred juveniles sprint five furlongs in the seventh race, and with the known element not particularly impressive let’s go with the debuting Sunset Seven as a straight play and rolling exotic single. The David Hofmans-trained gelding more than held his own with the older stakes horse Rare Candy (entered in today’s eighth race) in a recent five furlong drill (see workout) and then most recently recorded a bullet blowout (34 1/5 seconds) to have him right on edge. With hustling rider Marty Garcia aboard, we’re expecting the son Lucky Pulpit will be on or near the lead throughout.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Rare Candy; 6-Tell Me a Story; 11-David’s Memory
The eighth race is a very strong first-level allowance sprint on turf with several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to get decent price home. Rare Candy hasn’t been out since last August but sports a healthy series of workouts for his return and offers considerable long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line. He’s proven he can fire fresh, and in his only turf sprint of his career (his debut) the son of Twirling Candy ran lights out to be a fast-finishing runner-up, indicating that his style is made to order for this downhill course. David’s Memory just missed by a head under these conditions last month and really won’t have to improve much to beat this field. The son of Vronsky might enjoy a stalking trip and should have very chance from the top of the lane to the wire. He always has run best under Bejarano. Tell Me a Story launches a comeback for Miller as a first-time gelding and may be the quickest of the quick. The works at San Luis Rey Downs are impressive and he’s another that has shown he can win off the bench. Worth nothing is the barn’s superb record with layoff runners – 26% with a massive flat-bet profit.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-G Q Covergirl; 8-Knk’s Dolce Vita; 9-Dis Smart Cat
The ninth race is a contentious sprint for first-level allowance fillies and mares, with the main contention drawn to the far outside. Knk’s Dolce Vita finished a distant second (while more than seven clear of the rest) in a strong main track dash last month and the lightly-raced 3-year-old seems certain to continue to improve with experience and maturity. She is reunited with Corey Nakatani, who won on her in her debut in May. G Q Covergirl broke her maiden for $40,000 two races back and came back to handle a starter’s allowance field with authority last month. The daughter of General Quarters appears to be made of the right stuff and she’s fast enough on speed figures to be a major threat once again. Dis Smart Cat, a route-to-sprint play, can be dangerous at any distance and should have enough early zip to secure a favorable pace-stalking position outside. She earned a career top number when narrowly missing in a photo over a mile vs. similar in late May and has trained quite well since.
RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Kinematico; 6-Union Rebel; 11-Insubordination
The meet’s finale is a messy mile maiden claiming turf event with several price chances. Union Rebel shows up in a claimer for the first and time and seems likely to improve a bunch against this softer group. He’s solid in the speed figure department, exits a very strong race, and shouldn’t have any issues with the switch to grass. Also, there’s a positive jockey switch to Corey Nakatani. Insubordination also has the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle in his favor and has run well two-turning in the past. We love the blinkers-off maneuver, and at 10-1 on the morning line the son of Vronsky offers good long shot value. Kinematico has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern in addition to improving speed figures and blinkers on. With an expected forward move in just his third career start, the son of Artie Schiller is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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