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'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'
Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, April 20, 2019
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Y Not Sizzle; 3-Goodtingscomingpink; 4-Lucky Lately
Forecast: Four of the 11 entrants in this maiden turf miler for fillies and mares exit the same race and are difficult to separate. Lucky Lately and Goodtingscominpink finished two-three in that Feb. 24 affair over this course and distance and both must be considered major players in this open affair that probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Y Not Sizzle, a fair third sprinting in her debut, has plenty of room to improve for Mullins and is worth including at 12-1 on the morning line. In a race we’ll otherwise pass, we suggest you include as many as you can afford to.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Ack; 2-Palladium; 4-Diamonds Blitz
Forecast: The second race is a five-runner $25,000 claiming miler for 3-year-olds with nothing to trust. We’ll use three but pass the race. Diamond Blitz stretches out again and could be the controlling speed in a race without no apparent effective closers. He’s one of two Keith Desormeaux-trained contenders, the other being Palladium, who failed at 6/5 in a similar spot earlier this month without apparent mishap but has previous form that is good enough to win. Ack should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip and have every chance; however, this will be his third start this month and he’s never been all that generous under pressure. Tread lightly.
RACE 3: Post 2:01 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Outlaw; 6-Union Station
Forecast: This is another weak affair that offers little in the way of wagering value. Union Station shows up in a claimer for the first time and looks best by default. Off the board in seven of eight career starts, the Bernardini gelding should be a late threat in a field that is considerably easier than what’s he’s been used to facing. Outlaw stretches out again, lands a good inside post, and may try gate-to-wire tactics. His sprint numbers are okay, but he’s suspect at this trip. Again, go as deep here as your budget allows.
RACE 4: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Flower Point; 7-Virginia Hall; 10-Fabiolla
Forecast: This wide-open grass grab bag for maiden sophomore fillies over five furlongs has several possibilities; we’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Flower Point is a first-timer for the Sadler/Prat team and shows a bullet six-furlong workout at Los Alamitos to indicate fitness. She’s a daughter of Point of Entry and therefore bred to love grass. Virginia Hall, by the speed sire Grazen, shows a series of moderate drills at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato, but should be plenty fit and most first-timers from this stable run a bit better than their workout times. Fabiolla displayed some ability during her juvenile campaign in England and should be competitive, although the 10-post does her no favors. Her only grass race overseas was her best and should make her a strong fit with these.
RACE 5: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Dr. Dorr
Forecast: Dr. Dorr ran very well to be second in the San Carlos S.-G2 in his comeback, has returned to work sharply for Baffert, and appears primed for a winning performance over a track he’s always loved. The veteran gelding is reunited with “win rider” Talamo and if he can negotiate a good trip from the rail he should be along in time. At 9/5 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:44 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Tammy’s Window; 6-Tiny Tina; 8-Mongolian Window
Forecast: This stronger-than-par turf miler for first-level allowance fillies and mares has at least three major contenders, so we’ll spread the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Tammy’s Window on top. Given too much to do when rallying much too late vs. similar over nine furlongs last time out, she shortens to a mile in her first start since being claimed by Sadler, switches to Baze, and with good racing luck looks capable of producing the last run. Tiny Tina is fresh from a nice score vs. starter’s allowance foes and earned a speed figure that makes her tough right back despite the class hike. Mongolian Window crushed a restricted $35,000 claiming field over this course and distance in mid-February and with a repeat of that race today could be hard to beat despite the tougher assignment.
RACE 7: Post 4:16 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Tiz Toffee; 6-Heloise
Forecast: Heloise has the perfect style for this seven-furlong trip and with her best effort should be along in time in this $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares. Fuentes knows her well and will give her the patient ride she requires. Tiz Toffee probably is worth including in your rolling exotics as well, though she shows an unhealthy pattern (huge class drop below her claim level) and has a reputation of burning money. However, at this level, her best certainly is good enough.
RACE 8: Post 4:48 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Space Talk; 7-Merger Arbitrage; 10-Lady Mamba
Forecast: Space Talk finished a respectable third behind Vasilika in the Royal Heroine S.-G3 earlier this month and finds a considerably easier assignment in what is a split of today’s sixth race, an allowance turf miler for distaffers. She’s strong in the speed figure department and with good racing luck and little help up front seems capable of being along in time. Merger Arbitrage stretches out again and should fold into a good pace-stalking position and then have every chance. Lady Mamba is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she’s a solid fit on numbers and could get brave if she can shake loose early. Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Space Talk.
RACE 9: Post 5:20 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Victor’s Show; 9-Wicken Fen
Forecast: Wicken Fen returns off a long layoff after chasing straight maidens in his only outing almost a year ago and shows up in a modest claimer, so he either has issues or his connections are trying to steal a purse. This barn has had recent success with comebackers and Delgadillo is one of it’s go-to jockeys, so in a modest field this son of Twirling Candy appears the one to beat. Victor’s Show earned a career top speed figure when second vs. slightly softer foes last time out and not much more will be needed to earn him a diploma today. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic play.