'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'
Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, June 23, 2019
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade:
Use: 2-Miss Flawless; 6-Queen of the Track
Forecast: Miss Flawless turns back to a sprint for the first time since being imported from France, and we suspect the Miller-trained filly will be more comfortable going short than long. She makes a major jockey switch to Prat for a barn that has superior stats with the route-to-sprint angle and her best European form fits very well in this starter optional claimer. We’ll put her on top but also use Queen of the Track, a winner of a Hillside turf sprint here in the winter and with steadily improving speed figures. The daughter of Midshipman has the kind of early speed that has proven to be extremely effective over this course and distance.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Pas de Panique; 5-We’re Still Here
Forecast: Pas de Panique tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up performance in his debut, finishing nine clear of the rest while earning a powerful number for the level. With that bit of experience behind him, the son of Smiling Tiger should be tough to beat, though the Baffert-trained We’re Still Here is certain to attract play following a bullet (fastest of 70) 47 seconds gate work last Sunday. The son of Union Rags brought $270,000 as a yearling and is the first juvenile starter from this stable. We’ll prefer Pas de Panique on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Eddie Haskell
Forecast: Eddie Haskell will be an overwhelming favorite in this five furlong turf sprint stakes after winning the Daytona S.-G3 under identical conditions last month. The Glatt-trained gelding has risen to the top of the rankings among West Coast grass sprinters and acts like he has further improvement in him after earning a career top speed figure in his most recent outing. We’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Go Big Blue Nation; 10-Amalfi Sunrise
Forecast: Go Big Blue Nation is the best of known element – she’s hit the board in both of her starts – but probably can’t beat a good filly. There may be one in here. Amalfi Sunrise impressed in the Ocala April Sale, breezing a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, and also shows a half mile gate workout in 47 seconds (fastest of 37) last week to indicate readiness. She’s a lengthy, impressive filly, and the barn has superb stats with debut runners. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with Almalfi Sunrise on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Sharp Samurai
Forecast: Sharp Samurai had a right to be a short horse when weakening to finish fourth in the Shoemaker Mile last month but should be much tighter today and be ready for his best effort. The Glatt-trained gelding projects to be comfortably placed throughout from his good inside draw, and over a course that he’s always loved (five wins in seven starts) the son of First Samurai appears ready to display his best stuff. We’ll use him in the straight pool and also as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: X
Single: Don’t Sell
Forecast: With the scratching of Sneaking Out, the sprinter-stretching-out Don’t Sell is a standout in this valuable stakes event for state-bred 3-year-old fillies. First or second in four of six career starts with strong, rising speed figures, the daughter of Square Eddie will be the controlling speed, and in a field lacking in effective closers, the O’Neill-trained filly should dominate as a short-priced straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Morning Snow
Forecast: Morning Snow was extremely well-meant in his debut earlier this month but had to settle for second behind the hot first-timer King Jack in what was a fast, highly-rated affair. The Baffert barn has impressive stats with second-time starters, so we’re expecting this son of Morning Line to at least run as well today and probably better. Talamo stays aboard, so let’s make this quick colt a logical, short priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Causeforcommotion; 8-Oscar Dominguez
Forecast: Oscar Dominguez seems well-suited for this mile and three-quarters marathon trip, and after winning a strong allowance race over nine furlongs on this grass course in very impressive fashion last time out the Irish-bred gelding seems set for a career top effort. Prat rides him back for Baltas and will have the son of Zoffany rolling from off the pace. Causeforcommotion is a filly tackling the boys but she’s a proven marathoner and earned a number two races back in a runaway victory in the Santa Barbara S.-G3 that charts very well here. Franco stays aboard and knows her well. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Oscar Dominguez on top.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Bowl of Soul; 7-Der Lu
Forecast: Baffert has this race surrounded with Bowl of Soul and Der Lu, both of whom appear capable of winning, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while giving the edge on top to ‘Soul. The daughter of Shakin It Up graduated at first asking here last month while displaying the type of stalking style that make her especially effective at this seven furlong trip. The rail is no bargain, but she strikes us as being good enough to overcome it. Der Lu won at first asking last summer at Del Mar so we know she can fire fresh, and the work tab leading up to this race should have fit enough. She’s actually faster on numbers than her stablemate and has the benefit of the cozy outside draw.
RACE 10: Post 5:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Surface; 8-Ameerah B
Forecast: Let’s complete the day in a tough maiden turf miler for fillies and mares by doubling the race in rolling exotic play. Ameerah B, second in both of her starts with less than ideal trips, seems ready to graduate in her first outing with blinkers. The Sadler-trained daughter of Street Boss continues to look good in the morning and should be forwardly placed throughout and be trouble-free. Surface disappointed when well-backed last time out but shortens to a mile, removes blinkers, retains Espinoza, and deserves a chance to make amends. She’ll be running on strongly late.