Jeff Siegel

'Prime Picks'

Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
Horse owner, breeder and HRTV analyst Jeff Siegel also happens to be Southern California's premier handicapper. Check his blog each day before you play!
March 6, 2015
Race 1:

Today’s program begins with a modest maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-olds fillies.  #6 Summer Veil is 6/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper; she’s drawn comfortably outside and appears to be the controlling speed.  A solid work tab at Los Alamitos should have her on edge; however, at this price she doesn’t offer much in the way of value.

Race 2:

The second race sports a similar story.  #2 Quay Factor, a distant though respectable third in a hot race vs. tougher last time out, drops for the money run and should be hard to beat.  We’ll make her a rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line odds of 5/2.

Race 3:

The third race begins the Pick-6.  #2  Miss Boom Boom looked good breaking her maiden in an off-the-turf event earlier this meeting and has trained well since; the Hollendorfer-trained filly should produce a forward move and looks tough right back despite the class hike.  We’ll strongly prefer her on top but also include in our rolling exotic play #4 Carrick Bay, beaten a neck in a softer spot recently but earning a speed figure that make her a legitimate contender against this starter’s allowance group.

Race 4:

Bottom-rung claimers sprint six furlongs in the fourth race; there’s nothing much to trust here so best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  #6 Peacenik, away since October, returns cheap for Spawr so his current condition is a question mark but you have to use him based on his back class.  #8 Traweek, a strong second at 23-1 vs. similar last time out, will be in the thick of things with a similar performance today.  All three of his lifetime wins have come on this main track.  #10 Red N Black Attack is another with proven winning form at Santa Anita and is a solid fit based on recent speed figures.  Preferences goes to Peacenik but this is not a race we’re planning on getting too heavily involved.

Race 5:

#1 Logan’s Moon stretches out for the first time in the fifth race and we’re expecting a major effort from the son of Malibu Moon.  He’s strong in the speed figure department, worked very well since his last race, and lands the good inside post position.  We’ll also use #6 Sammy Mandeville, second in a hot race vs. similar here last month and also looking sharp in the morning since that effort.  Desormeaux will have him rolling late.

Race 6:

We’ll double the sixth race, a downhill turf sprint for maiden 3-year-olds.  #6 Young and Hungry tipped his hand with an excellent second place finish over this course and distance last month and any kind of forward move today will make him hard to handle.  Stranger danger comes in the form of #5 Foreverly, a first timer from the Sise with good works both here and at San Luis Rey Downs.  He’s a kin to the good turf sprinter Memorette and Desormeaux has been out in the morning to work him.

Race 7:

The featured seventh race is a six furlong main track sprint for entry-level state-bred 3-year-old fillies and appears to be a stronger than par race for the level.  #11 Lost Bus graduated in her debut over this track last May so you know she can fire fresh, and she arrives fit and ready following a string of strong drills at Palm Meadows in Florida.  Smith should have her on or near the lead throughout.  #7 Sheer Pleasure, a route to sprint play, adds blinkers for the first time and is reunited with Garcia, who won on her in her debut at Los Alamitos in December.  She’s been sharp in the morning of late for D’Amato and figures to fire her best shot.

Race 8:

The eighth race is a Hillside turf sprint for $25,000 claimers.  #8 Fighting On takes a one level class drop after finishing a strong second over this course last month.  He’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win, but the Baltas-trained gelding seems to have found the ideal spot.  #1 Zimmer, away since August and with a touch of back class, runs for the lowest claiming tag in his career but seems logically spotted by Proctor.  The rail is no help but the workouts indicate fitness and the nine year old has some excellent back form on this course.

Race 9:

The nightcap is a bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares.  #3 Happy’s Golden Gal closed a gap in a fairly promising debut earlier this meeting; it wasn’t the world’s strongest race but she can be expected to improve with experience and this seven furlong trip should be right up her alley.  #8 Blind Dreams, away since last April, returns for Heap with a good series of works and didn’t run badly at all in her only previous outing.  She could easily be a better type this time around and clearly doesn’t have much to beat.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets on top with Blind Dreams.

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