'Analysis & Wagering Strategies'
Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
RACE 1: Post 11:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Indy Jones; 3-Anvil Rock; 8-Tanker; 11-Samurai Jack
Forecast: Juvenile maiden-claimers meet over a mile on turf in a difficult affair. We’ll go four-deep without a real strong opinion. Indy Jones closed a gap sprinting in his debut and seems likely to produce a forward move at this trip. The son of Temple City, though well-beaten in that Hillside turf sprint, earned a pretty good “buried” number and drops from maiden to maiden claiming. He’s probably as good as any. Tanker adds blinkers for the first time after chasing straight maidens two-turning on turf at Del Mar in early September. He’s another with room to improve and should be on the lead or close to it throughout. Samurai Jack is stuck way outside but can be expected to display good speed in his first try routing for Glatt. On pedigree there’s no reason he won’t handle the turf. Anvil Rock, claimed in both of his starts, most recently by Bell for $50,000, adds blinkers and is a first-time gelding so he has at least a couple of reasons to step forward. The son of Verrazano will likely be a late factor.
RACE 2: Post 11:29 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Spend It; 6-Blaze of Glory
Forecast: Blaze of Glory returns to the bottom-rung maiden claiming ranks, removes blinkers, and has prior speed figures that are good enough to beat this field. He’s stretching out after a series of sprints and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. In an empty field, he’s the one to beat and may offer some value if you can get close to his morning line of 3-1. Spend It is a 21-race maiden but has numbers that make him a contender. Obviously not one to trust, the Stormy Jack gelding may be worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up, but not much more than that.
RACE 3: Post 12:01 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Lucky Student; 5-Bonneville Flats
Forecast: Lucky Student, first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer, is an old mare that has been first or second in 18 of 42 career starts and has won six races over the Santa Anita main track. She should have enough early speed to clear this field and given that type of trip is a strong candidate to produce a gate-to-wire performance. Bonneville Flats is a fit on numbers but is winless in six starts over the local main track. She should draft into a good pace-stalking position and have every chance. Let’s try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Lucky Student.
RACE 4: Post: 12:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Vasilika; 3-Cambodia
Forecast: Vasilika and Cambodia renew their rivalry in the Goldikova Stakes over a mile on turf and depending upon the trip either one can win. Vasilika has won a remarkable eight races from nine starts this year but picks up 2 lbs. following her victory in the 10-furlong Rodeo Drive Stakes in late September. This turn back to a mile won’t be an issue; the Hollendorfer-trained filly can handle any trip. Cambodia always fires her best shot but went down by a length to Vasilika in the Rodeo Drive after pressing the pace throughout. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then we’ll press keying Vasilika on top.
RACE 5: Post 1:20 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Mayan Warrior; 11-Diamond Blitz
Forecast: Diamond Blitz has trained well enough to win a maiden $30,000 claimer at first asking, and although the Desormeaux barn has a low percentage with debut runners this son of Munnings might prove to be the exception. He’s plenty fit and has displayed good quickness from the gate in the morning. The best of the known element would appear to be Mayan Warrior, an O’Neill-trained colt with better than average speed figures for this level. A decent third in a strong race vs. slightly tougher foes last time out, the son of Warrior’s Reward is strictly the one to beat. We’ll give the edge on top to Diamond Blitz but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 1:50 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tiz a Billy; 3-Perfectly Majestic; 9-My Man Chuckles
Forecast: Tiz a Bill always has loved this downhill turf course and returned to winning form with a confidence-building romp over outclassed $25,000 rivals earlier this meeting. This is a significant raise in class to the $50,000 level but he’s a past-classer that is more than capable of handling the tougher assignment. Perfectly Majestic has never been keen on winning but he’ll be running on late and with some help up front could be dangerous in the final furlong. My Man Chuckles found five furlongs a bit too sharp when fourth but too late in a slightly softer spot at Del Mar in August. Freshened and with a dangerous late kick, the Baltas-trained gelding gets Rosario and is a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line. Let’s prefer Tiz a Billy on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 11-For the Hustle; 14-Conversate
Forecast: This is a messy bottom-rung maiden-claiming extended sprint in which nothing would surprise us. Small ticket player should consider the two we’ve listed, but the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. For the Hustle appears to be the controlling speed and this shortening up from seven to six-and-one-half furlongs might make the winning difference. He’s always been vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong, but against this group he just might be able to roll all the way to the wire. If not, late-running Conversate is the one to fear most. The son of Good Journey finished with some interest when fifth in his debut and has every right to improve with that experience behind him.
RACE 8: Post 2:50 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Prince Earl; 6-Desert Stone; 8-River Boyne
Forecast: River Boyne weakened late and wound up third as the even money favorite in the Del Mar Derby but has trained like his old self of late for Mullins and returns to Santa Anita, where he’s a perfect four-for-four on grass. The Irish-bred colt should snap back with his best effort, and if he does, he’ll get back on the winning track. Prince Early is unbeaten in two starts and gets the acid class test while moving up from non-winners of two company to graded stakes competition. He’s a talented gelding with plenty of upside and just might be this good, so at the price (6-1) he’s worth throwing in. Desert Stone is better than his 20-1 morning line gives him credit for and could be a knock-out horse in rolling exotic play. The Baltas-trained colt finished sixth but was beaten just over four lengths despite a less-than-ideal trip in the Del Mar Derby and has continued to impress in the morning since. Include him on a ticket or two, at least.
RACE 9: Post 3:20 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Lord Guinness; 4-Pleasant d’Oro; 8-Kylemore
Forecast: This is a highly-competitive, stronger-than-par entry-level middle-distance main track affair requiring a spread. Lord Guinness is improving with racing and appears the one to beat based on his strong runner-up effort in a similar affair last month. The son of Shanghai Bobby has good tactical speed, a favorable inside draw, and looks likely to draft into a comfortable second-flight position. The Morey barn is overdue for a win and this colt just might be able to provide it. Pleasant d’Oro graduated for fun vs. soft maiden rivals in a highly-rated race; we’ll see if he can duplicate (or even improve upon it) in this tougher affair. A bullet recent five-furlong workout indicates he’s continuing to move in the right direction. Kylemore is progressing nicely since joining the Baltas barn. He appeared much improved in a convincing score vs. starter’s allowance rivals last time out and should be a fit in this league. Rosario picks up the mount from Prat, who opts for Pleasant d’Oro. Lord Guinness gets the edge on top, but we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 10: Post 3:50 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Neptune’s Storm; 9-Knight’s Cross; 13-Felix Leiter
Forecast: A grass grab bag for maiden juveniles over a mile is a challenging way to end the meeting, but we’ll give it a crack. Knight’s Cross has been a tough horse to ride, so perhaps the switch to Prat will make a big difference. The son of Mizzen Master has ability that he hasn’t yet shown, and if the light switch goes on today, he could very well spring a surprise at 8-1 on the morning line. Neptune’s Storm is a first-time gelding and therefore eligible to improve a bunch for Morey. He’s a one-paced grinder but seems like a trier and could be a strong threat from off the pace if the early fractions are honest. Felix Leiter must draw in from the also-eligible list, but if he does, he’s worth including. The work tab at Fair Hill is healthy and should have him ready for a good effort first time out for Proctor.