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Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Candy Promises
The Saturday opener features starter’s allowance company at the abbreviated sprint distance of five and one-half furlongs. Candy Promises hasn’t been out since August but the Bill Spawr-trained gelding has trained like he’s fit and ready and has back form that makes him strictly the one to beat. The Twirling Candy gelding earned a career top speed figure when winning over this track and distance as a 3-year-old and could easily be a better type this time around. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Dominating Woman
Dominating Woman seems like the logical short-priced favorite in this maiden special weight seven furlong event for sophomore fillies. The Peter Miller-trained daughter of Dominus finished eagerly but too late in her debut at Los Alamitos in December and should really appreciated this extended sprint trip. Her works at San Luis Rey Downs give strong indication that she’s fit and ready, but at 9/5 on the morning and likely to go lower, she’ll probably not offer much value other than as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Bettys Bambino; 2-Richard’s Boy
The featured Sensational Star Stakes is carded as the third race (out of the Pick-6) because it offers only four starters. Bettys Bambino was superb in his comeback victory over this course and distance in the San Simeon S.-G3 in December and has been kept on edge with a series of sharp workouts since. A winner of five straight dating back to September of 2014 and boasting a superb record of six wins in seven starts over the Hillside Course, the Unusual Heat gelding is likely to leave at odds-on. Richard’s Boy looks like the controlling speed and given that role could be hard to run down. He’s been first or second in five of eight lifetime appearances over the course and seems primed for another major effort. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, Let’s include both in our rolling exotics while clearly preferring Bettys Bambino on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-All of a Sudden; 4-Divine Spark; 6-Adios Cali
The Pick-6 kicks off with a highly-contentious entry-level allowance main track sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics. All of a Sudden just broke her maiden two-turning but shortens to a sprint today and is likely to continue her improving pattern. The daughter of Grazen figures to settle in mid-pack and then produce a run. Divine Spark gradually gamely over a wet track last month while earning a solid figure and the Bob Baffert-trained filly fits on numbers right back despite the raise in class. Adios Cali was out of her element when fading in the Cal Cup Oaks two-turning on turf last month but could return to her best form today in this softer spot sprinting on dirt. She lands the cozy outside post and projects to draft into a lovely pace-prompting position.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Munny Spunt; 9-Part of My Heart
The fifth race is a maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. The known element looks pretty average so let’s go with a fresh face. Part of My Heart has done some decent work in the morning for Dave Hofmans and should ready to fire a good shot right off the bat. The daughter of Papa Clem seems as good as any. Munny Spunt is the best of the known element and probably has a bit of improvement in her. She should appreciate the slightly shorter trip and if she can break running from the rail, the Jeff Mullins-trained filly will have every chance.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Ward ‘n Jerry; 3-Inordinate; 7-Hayabusa One
This 10-furlong second-level allowance turf affair has a noticeable lack of speed, and Inordinate might be the one to take advantage of the projected race shape. Freshened since August and now in the Richard Baltas barn, the ex-French performer removes blinkers and seems fit following a series of solid local workouts. He has form both in Europe and in New York that makes him a major player in this spot and if inherits the role as the controlling speed, he’ll be even more dangerous. Ward ‘n Jerry earned a career top number when third in the Cal Cup Classic last month and a similar effort today should at least land him in the frame. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the Mike Puype-trained colt projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. Hayabusa One has to come from far out of it and the likelihood of a slowly-run race makes his task a bit difficult. However, he’s every bit of a mile and one-quarter horse and could produce the last run with a little help up front.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Seau; 9-Kimbear
There doesn’t appear to be anything special among the first-timers so let’s go with two experienced colts. Kimbear has earned solid figures despite being a five-race maiden and seems to have found a good spot. He returns to the main track and his runner-up effort to Iliad two races back makes him the logical top pick. Seau continues to impress in the morning and the son of Distorted Humor should go better dropping back to a sprint. The switch to top rider Flavien Prat is another plus.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-I’malreadythere; 8-Aldrin
I’malreadythere exits a strong race on turf and showed he could act on the main track when winning a restricted claimer here two runs back. He’s worked well since his last outing and looks likely to produce another forward move for the high percentage Hollendorfer-Prat team. Aldrin was more than five clear of the rest when runner-up vs. similar last month and if he can establish the pace without undue pressure he can take this field a long time. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Gosofar; 4-My Uncle Al; 9-Evicted
The finale is a state-bred turf mile affair for 3-year-olds with some familiar faces. Gosofar stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, and could find himself on the front end. Based on pedigree he should be able to handle the trip and a bullet half mile workout at San Luis Rey Downs since his last outing provides indication that a forward move is likely. My Uncle Al, second under these conditions last month, should be in the fray throughout again while Evicted, in the money in his last three, stretches out again and won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma.
You can also find the best handicapping tips of the day
from these Southern California Handicappers:
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- Handicapper's Report
- House Handicap
- iHandicap Races with Pace Pals App
- Jeff Siegel
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- Racing Dudes
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- The HCP Guide
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