- Santa Anita Park
- Late Pick 4 Guarantee $500,000 Saturday, May 26
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Handicapping with Jeff Siegel
The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, May 15, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Foxy Fresh; 6-Parasail
Forecast: Foxy Fresh was nosed out in an $8,000 claimer two weeks ago and today drops to the bottom. This isn’t a healthy pattern, but if the Saldana-trained mare has one good one left she’ll probably beat this field, rail and all. Parasail, on the other hand, goes from the rail to the outside while plummeting from $12,500 down to $6,250, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Caballos, and has two career wins, both over the Santa Anita main track. The winner should be one of these two but the race offers no value so we’ll including both in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting it out.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Mischievious Lass; 5-Topaz Time
Forecast: We’ll also go two-deep in the second race, a maiden $20,000 extended sprint for older fillies and mares. Mischievous Lass missed by a neck vs. a slightly tougher group last month, and while she’s slow on speed figures everybody else in here is as well. The Glatt-trained filly is the logical top pick but offers no value at 6/5 on the morning line. Topaz Time found five furlongs a bit too sharp when a too-little-too-late fourth at this level last month. With an extra furlong and one-half to work with today, the daughter of Benchmark should have every chance to wear down the leaders from the quarter pole home.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Anatolian Heat; 4-Fabozzi
Forecast: Fabozzi has the sprint-to-route angle we like in addition to proven winning form over the Santa Anita turf course. He also has recent speed figures that make him a solid fit in this optional claimer and is reunited with “win rider” Van Dyke. With good racing luck and some help up front, he should be able to produce a winning late kick. Anatolian Heat was in too tough when fourth in the San Simeon Stakes last month but is properly spotted today and should regain his best form. The Miller-trained gelding switches to Desormeaux and projects to settle into a comfortable second-flight, ground-saving position. We’ll prefer Fabozzi on top but use both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Eagle Screams; 3-Mercer Island
Forecast: Mercer Island, claimed back by Miller for $25,000 in his last outing (always a good sign), is strong in the speed figure department, retains Elliott (who fits him perfectly), and looks well-placed to regain his winning form. The son of Tapit has a good stalking style and should thoroughly enjoy the projected race flow. Eagle Screams is a veteran gelding with solid, consistent form, and looks dangerous right back after beating a $20,000 claiming field over this track and distance last month. Claimed out of that race by Bonde and switching to Desormeaux, the nine-year-old likely will settle into an ideal ground-saving position from his rail post position and then have every chance. Preference on top goes to Mercer Island but both should be included in your rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Twirling Apples; 4-Red Shelby
Forecast: Red Shelby exits a strong starter’s allowance race and drops for the money run in this restricted (Nw-2) $40,000 claimer for fillies and mares. The Miller-trained daughter of Greatness has superior gate speed and will take some catching. Twirling Apples has the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and looks like the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll put Red Shelby on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Don’t Stalk Me; 6-Big Bad Leroy
Forecast: Don’t Stalk Me didn’t get the best of runs when beating a $20,000 field here earlier this month and looks live on the one-level raise following a Jacobson claim while switching to Pedroza. The rail is no bargain but the son of Kafwain should enjoy this extended sprint distance. Big Bad Leroy will be hard to deny with a repeat of his race-before-last, a highly-rated score in a state-bred maiden claiming sprint. Baze stays aboard for Glatt and should have this gelding in a perfect, pace-stalking position outside. Don’t Stalk Me probably will be the better price of the two, so let’s put him on top while including both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Nine Point Nine; 4-Painting Corners; 5-Pyscho Sister
Forecast: This is a tough race, a downhill turf sprint for second-level allowance fillies and mares. Nine Point Nine looked good beating a $50,000 claiming field over this course and distance in mid-April and should fire a similar shot today for the always-potent Desormeaux/Cerin combo. First or second in six of 12 career starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Tribal Rule gets the slight edge on top. Painting Corners, away since November following a clever score over five furlongs on turf, loves the Santa Anita downhill course (two wins in three starts) and will be tough if cranked up. The work tab is light and last year she needed an outing before being ready to win, so we’ll use her but not with a great degree of confidence. Psycho Sister has been routing most of her career but may enjoy this drop back in trip. She has plenty of early speed but seems most comfortable as a stalker, and we suspect that’s the exact kind of trip she’ll be able to work out.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Jerry’s Thunder; 5-John and Montan; 7-Johnny Ray
Forecast: You should use as many as you can afford to in the finale, a maiden $20,000 extended sprint that has several possibilities. Johnny Ray is re-equipped with blinkers, drops sharply to the bottom, and is a fit on figures. These are his friends. Jerry’s Thunder removes blinkers and has the kind of early zip that makes him dangerous in a weak affair. He gets a weight break while picking up bug boy Espinoza and should clear this field and then have every chance to hold on. John and Montan, away since last September and working well for new trainer Koriner, could easily be a better type this time around. He refused to break in his debut and then was beaten 17 lengths in his second start, but he’s only 5-1 on the morning line for a reason.