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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Mon., May 26, 2014)
There will be no Rainbow Pick-6 hysteria at Gulfstream Park today but there still will be a major carryover to shoot for. Santa Anita is offering a $94,643 Pick-6 carryover on races four through nine with a special late first post of 1:30 p.m.
The opener is a juvenile dash that doesn’t appear particularly strong. #3 Desert Steel finished a somewhat disappointing third in her debut (she was 4/5) but adds Lasix today and has come back to work well, so improvement is likely. We’ll use her in our rolling exotics along with the first-timer #4 Lost Bus, a filly bred for extreme speed (Bring the Heat) and training like she has plenty of it for Heap.
The co-featured Los Angeles Handicap, a Grade 3 six furlong sprint, is carded as the second race and offers an even money favorite in #4 Wild Dude. Beaten a nose in the Potrero Grande Stakes last month, he’s held his form in the morning for Hollendorfer and will be hard to beat with anything close to his best race, though at even money on the morning line he offers little to gain. Smith takes over for the injured Bejarano and should have this lightly-raced colt along in time. In a small field, the son of Wildcat Heir won’t have any traffic concerns.
The third race, a claiming sprint down the hill, looks fairly contentious and we’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics. #8 Koast is more than good enough to win off his best try, but he’s been disappointing in his last pair and may have lost some of his speed. We’ll put him on top but certainly not with a great degree of confidence. #6 The One’s for Mel is a route-to-sprint class dropper from the Eurton barn and has won over this course in the past; look for him to be running on strongly late. #7 Candy’s Sunrise has a chance if he can repeat his strong runner-up try over this course and distance at this level two runs back. Feel free to use a few more if you can afford to.
The carryover Pick-6 begins in the fourth race, a bottom-rung maiden claimer that offers two main contenders but a few others that have a look as well. #4 Forest Romance is from a clever outfit and has some back works last winter that were pretty decent. He doesn’t have to be a world beater to act with these. #8 Time for a J flashed speed and weakened late in a slowly run affair earlier this month; it was his first start since last summer so we’re expecting something of a forward move. Small ticket Pick-6 players may try to survive using these two but if you may find the need to spread considerably deeper by all means go for it.
We’ll double the fifth race, a first level allowance turf miler. #6 Volkonsky is 1-for-14 with nine seconds and thirds and clearly isn’t one to trust, but he switches to Smith and has solid numbers for the level. He’ll be doing his best work late. #3 Bobby Z Man has excellent hillside turf form and seems to be improving with each outing; today he tries two-turns for the first time and we’re hoping he can project his sprint form to at least a mile.
The sixth race is a restricted (nw-2) claimer and seems like the ideal spot for the #1 Stormin Lute, who is protected from being haltered due to his more than six month layoff. He’s trained like he’s fit and ready for Miller (solid with comebackers) and this seven furlong trip seems perfect for his late-running style. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics #2 Mavericks Gun, a strong fit on speed figures and a route-to-sprint play for Koriner. A repeat of his easy maiden claiming win two runs back puts him right there.
The Grade-1 Gamely Stakes over nine furlongs on turf is carded as the seventh race and matches a legitimate band of nine high-class older fillies and mares. #7 Parranda shipped in from Florida and won the Wilshire Stakes last month with authority and a career top speed figure; there’s every reason to believe she’ll run equally as well today and the extra furlong won’t bother in her in the least. We like her on top but we also must include #3 Stormy Lucy in our rolling exotics. Her victories over this course in the Santa Barbara ‘Cap and Santa Anita Stakes were legitimate and her exceptional late kick makes her very dangerous once again.
Older maiden fillies and mares meet over six furlongs in the eighth race. The fast-working first timer #5 Bonus Spin has done enough in the morning to warrant strong consideration; the daughter of Hard Spun goes for the hot Mullins barn and looks cranked up and read to win right now. She’s certain to be solidly supported at the windows. We’ll also toss in a bit of a price chance with another debut runner, #8 Discatsonthesquare, a daughter of the speed sire Square Eddie with a sneaky good work tab for Chew. She seems better than her morning line odds of 12-1.
The ninth and final is a maiden special weight Hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. #8 Humming Beethoven ran okay in her recent comeback over this course and distance and has trained well since, so we’re expecting a forward move from this Puype-trained filly. Baze stays aboard and should have rolling late. #4 Gratification had a run last month in the slop at Tampa Bay and was beaten a head with an okay number; she’s bred for turf (Scat Daddy) and likely will improve considerably with experience for Proctor. #11 Bird In Love may be a bit better than shown and could step forward big time today with the addition of blinkers. She’s shown improvement in the morning for O’Neill and switches to Smith.