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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., March 21, 2014)
A massive two-day pick-6 carryover of $551,928 awaits horseplayers on a Friday program that looks a little bit less challenging than the one yesterday. Let’s hope so.
The first two races are window dressing and neither one looks enticing. In the opener #5 Mangita switches to Smith and might benefit from a change in tactics after being sent to the front and then getting worn down late in each of her last three starts. Her one victory came from off the pace. #2 Magic Spot retains Bejarano, is drawn inside, and could be the one to cut out the fractions, just as she did in her maiden win last month. If you’re playing rolling exotics, these are the two that should be included.
The second race seems likely to be won by either #2 Clearly Confused or #3 Addendum and both should be used in rolling exotic play. We’ll prefer Addendum on top; she’s a first-off-the-claim for Pederson following a sharp score vs. slightly lesser company and retains Talamo. She’s a genuine and consistent mare with a willing late kick. Clearly Confused was out-footed as the choice vs. similar earlier this month but makes her first start off the claim for Hollendorfer and gains Bejarano, so improvement is likely.
The pick-6 begins in the third race; older maiden fillies and mares sprint down the Hillside course and we’ve got the main contenders down to just two. #3 Autumn View is an eight-race maiden but both of her starts over this course and distance this meeting have been quite good and she really won’t have to improve much to win. Bejarano stays aboard for Puype. #4 Provenance, beaten as the choice when third (and subsequently disqualified to sixth) last month under similar conditions, removes blinkers and has worked quite well recently for Jones. She’s due for a major forward move.
The fourth race, an extended sprint for fillies and mares, probably requires a bit of a spread. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s sufficient. #3 Hearitforthegirls didn’t earn much of a speed figure in her debut win but she showed some grit and determination and may prove to be a timely claim by Mullins, who protects her in this starter’s allowance affair. She’s trained well for her new connections and Maldonado stays aboard. #5 Among the Stars defeated a maiden $30,000 group in decent style recently and is another likely to improve with experience. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t bother her at all. #6 L T Reckless, away since a visually pleasing win at Pomona, appears to be training quite well for her comeback for O’Neill and could be a much better type as a 3-year-old.
With the scratching of logical contender #1 Jet Warrior, #3 Bettys Bambino seems the solid choice in the fifth race after crushing maidens an off-the-turfer in his debut. How much the off track moved him up, if at all, remains to be see but based strictly on pedigree he should handle grass just fine. #7 Luz Atticus has good consistent form at the level and should be prominent throughout. These two should be sufficient for pick-6 players.
Bottom-rung claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the sixth race; we’ll double the race and hope to advance. #1 Xuang Feng, second off the layoff for Miller, removes blinkers and should be fitter and tougher today with this massive class drop. The fact that Bejarano stays aboard in quite encouraging. #3 Di Conti has plenty of early zip and drops to the $8,000 level; he’ll take them as far as he can on the front end and we’re expecting a major effort in his first start since January and his first under Talamo.
The featured seventh race, a first-level 10-furlong allowance affair on turf, looks like a much better than par race on paper. #7 Mambo Man ran huge following a Canani claim when second in a strong race for the level last month, and with blinkers being added today following a sharp recent drill we’re expecting a winning performance from this son of Purge. Small ticket players might consider him as a possible single. #2 Boyett is always dangerous when he can control the pace and a front-running trip looks likely given his inside post and the lack of other need-the-lead types in the field. Bejarano stays aboard for Glatt. #4 Deep Play is rapidly improving with each outing for Vienna and earned a giant figure when beating state-bred foes in an off-the-turfer last month. He appears to be every bit as good if not better on turf and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line.
The nightcap, an older runner bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint, should be made to order for #1 Charbroiled, an improving third-time starter from the Karen Headley barn. A solid runner-up in a strong race for the level earlier this month, the son of Surf Cat should continue to progress with experience, and if he can avoid trouble from the rail he should beat this field. Stranger danger comes in the form of debuting #6 Jimrony, an Ellis-trained gelding with speed breeding and a decent enough work tab. With go-to rider Talamo taking the mount, the son of Marino Marini could come up a hot item on the tote.