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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Jan. 19, 2014)
A decent Sunday card starts out slowly but picks up steam midway and offers several attractive wagering opportunities.
The opener drew a six-runner field that contains little depth; #5 She’s a Go Girl seems like a trier and has that blinkers-off-angle working for her so we’ll put her on top. You should also consider Kitchingman’s other entrant, #1 Woodlandsway, a conditioned winner for this price tag across town last month and probably capable of improving a bit.
The second race has two major contenders but both are less than 2-1 on the morning line, so there’s not much to work with. #6 Moonlight Stroll finished an okay second in her debut and should move forward with that race behind her and the stretch-out in trip. #5 Browsing has been chasing tougher lately and should enjoy this considerably easier company. Neither one is trustworthy but we’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other.
#4 Shared Image has quite a bit going for her in the third race, a high priced maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. Bred to be very quick and working like she’s fit and ready for a stable that excels with debut runners, the daughter of Rocky Bar seems like a logical straight play and rolling exotic single. She’s 7/2 on the morning line but we’re not expecting to get that.
The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race and the scheme looks challenging. #6 Zuzu’s Petals might be a good single candidate; the Jones-trained filly launches a comeback but because she won her debut we know she can fire fresh and her recent workouts indicate fitness. She’s perfect (one-for-one) over the Santa Anita main track and makes a major jockey switch to Bejarano.
The fifth race, a grass grab bag for fillies and mares over a mile, is one to spread if you’re playing rolling exotics. Small ticket players should consider #2 My Gi Gi and #7 Sensationalize. The former has been consistently overmatched lately against graded stakes company but finally is realistically spotted and could quickly get her confidence back with one of her best efforts. The latter is moving up the ladder with improving numbers and with another forward move might be capable of producing the last run.
Maiden 3-year-old fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the sixth race and this is another event that looks treacherous. #1 Not a Love Song has trained better than the workout times would indicate and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she might make some serious noise in her debut. Bonde usually does well with first-timers. #7 Faith Hope Love showed some run when third in her debut on grass and there’s no reason she shouldn’t improve with experience and the switch to the main track. #11 Midnight Dream has plenty of speed, removes blinkers, shortens up, and switches to Smith. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Midnight Dream.
Fillies and mare sprint down the hill in the seventh race, a toughie for rolling exotic players. #2 Bosserette won over this course during the fall meeting, switches to Talamo, and continues to sizzle in the morning for Zucker. She’s a “must use,” as is #9 Famous Alice, a clever debut winner for Proctor in November and training well since that race to indicate she has more to give. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy has the proper stalking style for the course, lands Smith, and should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position outside. ‘Alice gets a slight edge but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
The featured La Canada Stakes for four-year-old fillies presents a rematch between #5 Broken Sword and #4 Fiftyshadesofhay, one-two finishers in the Bayakoa Stakes at Hollywood Park last month. ‘Sword picks up six pounds off that win but that’s not enough of a reason to go against her; the Hollendorfer-trained filly switches to conventional dirt and her only start on this type of surface produced an 11 length maiden score in her debut. Fiftyshadesofhay didn’t’ get out well when finishing a distant second to ‘Sword last time out but with a better break today the Baffert-trained filly can make it extremely competitive.
The nightcap is a real mess; claiming fillies and mares sprinting down the hill. Small ticket players should consider using #7 Tangerine Tickle (class dropper should be a late threat); #4 Creditcardroulette (deep closer can be dangerous with racing luck) and #11 Blushing Martha (a prior win over the course, dropping in class, and likely to inherit a good pace prompting trip outside). Toss is anybody else you’d like.