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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Oct. 3, 2013)
Pick-6 Players will be enticed by a $156,251 carryover on today’s nine race program that has plenty of depth and quality. The sequence (races 4 through 9) looks especially challenging.
In the opener #4 Miss Fast Eddie should build on her promising debut run and looks well-spotted to earn her diploma. A closing second at Pomona last month, she’s come back to train quite well for O’Neill and switches to Guitierrez. She’s been raised to the $50,000 maiden claiming level in a sign of confidence and looks capable of producing the last run at what should be a square price.
#2 Declassify was scratched from yesterday’s Gr. 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship for this easier non-winners of three affair and looks every bit of his 2/5 morning line odds. Both of his wins earlier this year earned triple digit Beyer speed figures and there’s nothing in here that can run that fast. According to reports, he hasn’t missed a beat in workouts leading up to his first race since June.
The third race is the Zuma Beach Stakes for juvenile colt over a mile on turf and was kept out of the Pick-6 sequence due to the presence of an overwhelming favorite, #4 Diamond Bachelor. A winner of both of his starts at Del Mar in devastating fashion, the son of War Front should perform equally well today and then become the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf later this month. He’s even money on the morning line and could easily go lower.
A fairly decent band of maiden juveniles compete over a mile on the main track in the fourth race to kick off the Pick-6 and we’ll go three deep on our ticket and hope to survive. #8 Electric Eddie has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and continues to train like he’ll thoroughly enjoy the added distance. His numbers are headed in the right direction and he should get the patient ride he needs from Guitierrez. #7 Even to the Moon exits the same race as Electric Eddie and also is stretching out for the first time. He has the blinkers-off angle working for him and Bejarano stays aboard. The filly #4 Grazenette might be worth tossing in if you can afford to; she closed with interest in her debut and earned a competitive figure. Mitchell is being unusually aggressive entering her against the boys while stepping her up in class but we’ll assume he has his reasons.
Juvenile maidens sprint down the hill in the fifth race and we’ve got this race down the just two. #1 Smuggley Bear switches to Leparoux and seems sure to improve a bunch for Canani; the Sharp Humor colt looked extra sharp in a recent workout and figures to stick a whole lot better today. There’s no reason he won’t enjoy the turf. #5 My Secret Affair exits a tough, productive race and is another that can be expected to move forward. Bejarano will have this Broken Vow colt rolling in the final furlong.
#6 Julio’s Gold appears ready for her best effort in today’s sixth race, a $16,000 claiming sprint restricted to sophomore fillies. The Hendricks-trained daughter of Brother Derek drops for the money run, exits a much tougher race, and has speed figures that are good enough to win. She’s 6-1 on the morning line and that’s about right. #4 Daddy’s Song also is dropping drastically on the class scale and is very likely to run better in this league; she’ll be part of the early pace and could stick around a long time. #8 Acute earned a competitive figure when beating a lesser group at Del Mar and with only six prior outings the Mitchell-trained daughter of Sharp Humor should have room for some upside.
#3 Clenor looks like a logical rolling exotic single in the seventh race, the Surfer Girl Stakes for juvenile fillies over a mile on turf. If she wins today – and we’re expecting that she will – the O’Neill-trained will most likely enter the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf as one of the strong choices.
Starter allowance juvenile fillies occupy the eighth race and a number of these have the credentials to win, so Pick-6 players are faced with another “spread” affair. #11 Susans Express won at first asking at Del Mar and we liked the way she did it; the number was strong and P. Val stays aboard. We’ll put her on top but also include #2 Wild Marini, also a sharp debut maiden claiming winner at Del Mar, and the likely (and deserved) favorite, #3 Whatsallthedrama, a closing second in the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar and retaining Bejarano.
The ninth race is a maiden miler on grass and really looks like a scramble. #3 Accomplish closed with interest in his debut, retains Talamo, and stretches out a distance he should like. He certainly has more of a right to improve than several of the others in here. #7 Brave Act, freshened since July, has figures that fit though he’s a little too one-paced to have a lot of confidence in. The lightly-raced #9 Thunder Cole ran well enough at Golden Gate Fields to be a major player in this state-bred affair and is another with plenty of room to improve.