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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thu., Oct. 3, 2013)
The Santa Anita Autumn season moves into its second week with a solid eight race program.
#1 Market Portfolio looks ready to graduate in this, his third career start. The Hollendorfer-trained gelding continues to exhibit sharpness in the morning and if he can avoid trouble from his rail post position the son of After Market should be able to handle this maiden-claiming field. #3 Broker Brett, in the money in his last pair with better than par speed figures for the level, looks like a logical exacta partner with our top pick.
#9 My Lucky Rose may be a hard one to trust in the second race – she’s finished off the board when favored in two of three career starts – but this drop in class might be just what she needs. The Baffert-trained filly has plenty of zip and could shake loose early. #10 Frandontjudge was victimized by a poor draw at Pomona and would up a distant third when favored in a similar spot last month, but she switches to Bejarano and probably is worth using in rolling exotic play. This is a tough race that probably requires a spread.
We’ll use two in the third race – the first leg of the Pick-6 – with preference to #6 Mega Heat. He’s had prior success over the local lawn and takes a realistic drop in class after a dull effort over the Del Mar all weather surface vs. tougher last time out. He’s back with Bejarano, who has won twice with him in the past, and should draft into a good pace prompting position. We’ll also include past-classer #1 Camp Victory. The Mitchell-trained gelding is re-equipped with blinkers and could try gate-to-wire tactics from his favorable rail draw. Talamo knows him well.
The fourth race is a low level claiming router that is full of question marks. Use as many as you can afford to. #8 Tuckers Point just defeated a #25,000 non-winners of two bunch at Pomona with a useful figure and is properly spotted against $10,000 foes today. Gomez will have him rolling late and the Miller-trained gelding may deserve a very slight edge on top. #1 Tamarack Smarty beat a slightly tougher field two runs back at Pomona and should be a late factor. #4 Majestic Moment has won over this track in the past and is another capable of producing a dangerous late kick.
Restricted (nw-2) filly and mare claiming sprinters meet in the fifth race; #2 Scary Fast looks capable of a repeat score following a sharp maiden claiming score at Pomona last month. She’s trained well since for Gaines and further improvement is likely. #4 Tiz Anna was overmatched last trip but isn’t today. She earned a competitive speed figure when beating maiden claimers two runs back. #8 Lil Cheyenne has been chasing tougher and didn’t run badly over this surface earlier this year. There’s some value here at 8-1 on the morning line.
#3 Heat Trap seems ready for a huge effort in the sixth race, a downhill turf dash for entry-level allowance fillies and mares. She set solid fractions before fading to fourth two-turning at Del Mar in the Solana Beach ‘Cap in mid-August and today shortens in trip while tackling easier foes. She seems most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter and has looked especially sharp in the morning of late. #7 Atta Girl Alma has won over this course in the past and looks like the most dangerous of the closing types.
The featured seventh race is a middle distance main track affair for second level allowance runners. #1 Blue Tone crushed a softer field at Del Mar with a sharp speed figure and has trained well since; he’s lightly-raced and likely to produce another forward move. We’ll prefer the Hess-trained gelding on top but also use #3 Rousing Sermon, dangerous on speed figures and especially fond of this main track.
The finale is a wide open juvenile maiden claiming sprint. Tread lightly here. #2 Candy Anniversary chased much tougher straight maidens in his debut and was no factor after a slow start; he seems sure to improve with that race behind him coupled with this class drop. The switch to Bejarano is another positive factor. #6 Flying Open clipped heels and fell at Pomona; his debut effort vs. straight maidens at Del Mar wasn’t all that bad. #11 Runaway Que is a first timer from the clever Mullins barn (24% with a flat-bet profit with debut runners) and has shown enough in the morning to warrant inclusion in rolling exotic play.