Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thur., April 18, 2013)

The final week of the season begins with an $85,262 Pick-6 carryover.

In the opener, I Don’t Care Who is a solid fit on numbers, retains Nakatani, and should be comfortably placed just behind the leaders. He seems as good as any and we’ll put him on top while also using in our rolling exotics Tiz Snazzy, an improving sort and switching to Talamo.

English Rhythm has a nice recent win over this course, switches to Talamo, and should run at least as well in today’s second, a soft race for the level. Talamo will have her within striking range throughout. Four Better is winless in seven career starts over this course but is in good form and should be in the battle late. We’ll slightly prefer English Rhythm but use both in our rolling exotics.

The third race offers a below par field for bottom rung maiden claimers; somebody has to win and it might as well be Dashing Ash. The son of Stormy Atlantic probably has another forward move in him after improving to finish third in a fairly strong race last time out. Maldonado stays aboard and at 4-1 on the morning line there may be some value to be had. Let’s use him as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Uno Dos Adios missed by a head in a much improved try in his comeback in mid-February and if he can duplicate that effort in today’s fourth race he’ll be hard to beat. The Spawr-trained gelding retains Smith and should be rolling late. Misdeed is back on turf and is a route-to-sprint play; the Mandella-trained gelding switches to Talamo and is another who looks dangerous from off the pace. In a Wine Tizzy already has had eight chances and may be a tough one to trust, but he’s another who will likely benefit from the turn back in trip and he has back figures that can win, so we’ll toss him in. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Uno Dos Adios on top.

Just Because has rising numbers and in a weak bottom rung maiden claimer should be a very short price to graduate. We’ll make him a no value fifth race rolling exotic single.

Macha backs up to a mile in the sixth race and her closing kick might be a bit more effective in a race that should have a decent pace. She switches to Bejarano and looks capable of producing the last run. We’ll prefer her on top but in our rolling exotics also include Pussycat Lips, exiting a better race, retaining Gomez, and probably better than her recent races indicate.

Jesse’s Giacomo has developed in a useful late-running sprinter and may be dangerous once again in the seventh race despite the rail and the double jump in class. She clearly runs well for this low profile rider so we’ll toss her in, even though she’s light in the speed figure department. Wellington Beauty, away since November, actually drops a notch for her comeback and that’s a cause for a concern. However, she’s a strong fit on numbers, seems to be training well, and will be tough if she returns as well as she left. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics – you can go deeper if you prefer to – while slightly preferring Wellington Beauty on top.

In the nightcap, Cavalletta is 1-for-15 and clearly not one to trust, but she’s a fit on figures and should draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving position. We’ll include her in our rolling exotics along with Cuvee Exchange (up in class but improving and our top pick) and Callous Effect (stretching out for the first time, solid recent sprint figures, and retaining Talamo).