Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (March 28, 2013)

Comebacking Fly High should be a short priced favorite to win the Thursday opener, a maiden special weight sprint for older runners. The Baffert-trained colt earned a sharp number when second in his only outing last summer and has trained like he’s fit and ready for a barn that excels with comebackers. He’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single.

In the second race, Church Avenue drops a level following a useful score over a wet-fast track earlier this month. She retains Bejarano, knows how to win races, and looks very much like the controlling speed once again. She’s another rolling exotic single offering little to no value.

So Pretty doesn’t have a whole lot of stick to her zip but in the third race, an abbreviated five furlong sprint, she may be able to hang on. We’ll use her along with the debuting Suances Luck, who has worked well enough for Vienna to warrant a big look in a weak affair, and in fact probably deserves top billing by default.

Distort This is a consistent sort dropping realistically in class in the fourth race, and should stick better while returning to the mid-grade claiming ranks. He appears to be the best of the speed types, but will have to hold off Ivanho. The latter has that dangerous route-to-sprint angle combined with proven winning form over this course, and should be storming home with the switch to Gomez. Both should be included in your rolling exotics; we’ll have extra tickets with Ivanho in the straight pool.

The fifth race is a tough affair; half of the six entered have a legitimate look. Include the Cat is a first-off-the-claim for Sadler while switching to Bejarano following a nice score over this surface last month. She’s a fit on numbers and probably has a forward move or two in her. Royal Tiger whipped a decent starter’s allowance field with a big figure recently and really won’t have to improve much to be tough right back. Egg Drop has rising numbers and is lightly raced with plenty of upside. The daughter of Alphabet Soup should be doing her best work late. We’ll give Egg Drop a very slight edge but we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics.

In the sixth race, Dubai You X Y Z returns in a winnable spot and has trained like he’s fit and ready. He has a history of firing fresh and is more than good enough to beat this level of competition with his best effort. We’ll like him on top but we’ll also toss in Chosen Miracle, turning back in trip for Hollendorfer and switching to Bejarano.

Blushing Angel must overcome the rail in the seventh race but she can turn it on late and should have enough pace up front to compliment her late-running style. A bullet recent half mile work should have her right on edge. Lady Rosamond was disappointing in the Santa Ysabel but has back figures that make her a fit and is reunited with Bejarano. She’s worth using. Miss American Pie is undefeated in two starts and continues to impress in the morning. She, like Blushing Angel, hails from the Sadler barn and should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge going to Blushing Angel.

Sweet Baguette returns to turf in the nightcap, gets the favorable rail, and switches to Maldonado. Look for her to be running on strongly late. English Rhythm ran well under similar conditions two races back and in a below par field for the level looks as good as any. We’ll try to get by using just these two; we suggest you spread if you can afford to.