Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sat., Feb. 16, 2013

A good 10-race Saturday program offers plenty of high quality racing and several enticing rolling exotic opportunities.

Bonita Star takes a significant class drop in the first race but still remains above her claim level. She’s a solid fit on numbers, knows how to win races and switches to Bejarano. We’ll put her on top but also include Melanistic, triple-jumped in class by new connections following a highly-rated bottom-rung win. She should draft into a nice pace prompting position.

Lamm is genuine and consistent and well placed in the second race for another big effort. Now in the Hess barn, he retains Bejarano and from the rail should inherit an ideal ground-saving position. We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

In the third race, Smil’n From Above has that always dangerous blinkers-off angle going for her and despite low profile connections seems as good as any in this modest, restricted $12,500 claiming router for fillies and mares. She earned a career top figure when a solid third vs. tougher over this track last time out and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single, though at 9/5 on the morning line she probably doesn’t offer much value in the straight pool.

Book Review, first or second in eight of 11 career starts, seems primed for another huge effort in the fourth race and under Bejarano appears strictly the one to beat. She would probably prefer a bit more early pace but is good enough to overcome any type of race-shape. Snow Fall was visually very impressive winning the Paseana H. with an ideal pace forcing trip and a similar journey can be projected today. Let’s give a very slight edge to Book Review while using both in our rolling exotics.

Midnight Lucky has trained like the Real McCoy for Baffert and debuts in the fifth race with Bejarano against a field he should handle. The rail is of minor concern; the son of Midnight Lute is dead fit and ready to roll. Let’s hope to get close to his 5/2 morning line odds in the straight pool; he’ll be a strong rolling exotic single as well.

Miss Well Molded won a first level state bred affair in December across town and in today’s sixth race returns vs. open company. She has room for further improvement and is a solid fit on numbers. Smith knows her well. Speedi Mouse was a useful sort in modest company in England and should be competitive at this level on this circuit for Greenman. Her local works haven’t been eye-catching but we’ll toss her in nonetheless. Miss Pippa, away since April but training in solid style, has plenty of speed and if she can shake loose early she could take the field a long way under Bejarano. Let’s use all three in rolling exotic play with a very slight preference to Miss Pippa on top.

Del Mar Sunset should be a very short priced favorite in the seventh race. A close third in his debut when beaten by the highly regarded Demonic, his form was flattered when runner-up Tiz the Truth came back to graduate easily. Proven at this seven furlong trip, the son of Candy Ride offers no value but appears to be a very logical rolling exotic single.

Although she’s being wheeled back quickly in two weeks, Judy In Disguise was impressive enough in her U.S. debut up north to warrant a look in the Sweet Life Stakes. She was a very precocious juvenile overseas and should make a nice sprinting turf/all weather performer on this circuit. Jubliant Girl is unbeaten in two starts and continues to impress in the morning, so we’re expecting another forward move today. She has the ideal pace stalking style for this course and should have every chance to extend her winning streak to three. Both are worth using in rolling exotic play with preference going to Jubliant Girl.

Lady Katfish looked quite good breaking her maiden over a wet fast track last month and if she can duplicate that performance on dry land in today’s eighth race she’ll likely win right back. Bejarano stays aboard for Dollase. She’s 9/5 on the morning line so we’ll forego the straight pool and make her a rolling exotic single.

The nightcap is a maiden claiming turfer that probably requires a spread; we’ll go three deep and hope that’s sufficient. Lord Kitra is bred to improve considerably on turf (Aragorn) and switches to Talamo. She should be within range throughout. Hard Buns drops into a high priced claimer for the first time and should be a factor in this league. Her numbers are rising and with another forward move she’ll be right there. Indygo F M A chased much tougher in an abbreviate sprint in her debut and today drops to a realistic level while stretching out to a distance she should prefer. Bejarano stays aboard, another plus. Of the three, Indygo F M A may be the best price, so we’ll put her on top.