Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Jan. 20, 2013)

The Sunday opener probably is best left alone but somebody has to win it and it might as well be a fresh face. J J Be Chillin hails from a barn that generally does very well with debut runners and the works look fairly solid. He lands the comfortable outside post and should have every chance to win at first asking. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single but only for a minimum investment.

Great Hills should lay over the second race field at a short price. An excellent fourth in the BC Turf Sprint, he catches a much softer field today and should be able to control this race from gate to wire. The recent works are sharp and Bejarano stays aboard for Asmussen.

Rummysecret War is a first off the claim for Mullins and can be expected to improve a ton in the third race for his new stable. A sharp recent half mile move should have him on edge. Fist Pump has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and will be doing his best work in the final furlong. Let’s give Rummysecret War a slight edge but use both in rolling exotic play.

Market Quote has done everything right in the morning for Sherriffs and appears fit and ready for a huge run first crack out of the box in the fourth race. The known element isn’t particularly strong, so we’ll put her on top and hope to get close to her 5-1 morning line odds. St. Malo’s Gate has improving numbers for Gaines and may be the best of those that have run. Bejarano should have her within striking range throughout. Top Kisser stretches out for Hollendorfer after a distant but decent runner up effort sprinting in her debut across town. She might be able to shake loose early and prove an elusive target.

In the fifth race, J K’s Mischief is bred to be a bullet on both sides of her pedigree and has worked like a first out winner for O’Neill. Guitierrez has been on her in the morning and knows her well. In what appears to be a below par field of straight maiden sophomore fillies, this daughter of Into Mischief is well spotted to win at first asking and offers value at anywhere close to her morning line odds of 6-1.

Slammer Time likes to settle early and make a run late and drops for the money run in today’s sixth race after finishing an okay fourth in first level state bred company last month across town. Talamo stays aboard for Jones and should have this gelding along in time in a moderate restricted affair.

Lady of Fifty continues to improve with racing and seems set for another forward move in the seventh race. The Hollendorfer-trained filly earned a career top number when winning the Bayakoa Handicap across town last month and she’s looked super in the morning since. Her win in an overnight stakes over this surface during the fall meeting was also highly rated. We like her to extend her winning streak to three today but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s little value to be had, so we’ll be content to make her a rolling exotic single.

Going for a Spin stretches out again in today’s eighth race and should be primed for a winning effort. She’s never won over this course but she’s run well enough and a repeat of her race before last at Hollywood Park beats this group. Bejarano rides her back. Van Brit always gives her best and adores the Santa Anita lawn. You simply have to include her in your rolling exotics.

Kenichi moves up a notch in the finale after a fast, highly-rated win here earlier this month. He must have issues but if he has one good one left he should have no difficult scoring right back. Baze figures to have him on or near the lead throughout. There’s value here at 7/2 on the morning line but he’ll probably go lower.