Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sat., Jan. 12, 2013)

A nice $48,433 Pick-6 carryover spices up a deep and competitive Saturday program.

Tizmetizyou didn’t get the best of runs in her debut but with better luck in today’s opener the daughter of Tiz Wonderful looks capable of earning her diploma. She continues to look sharp in the morning for Koriner and this extended sprint distance should be perfect for her style. Based strictly on pedigree, conventional dirt should be her best surface. Iconic Spirit, a beaten choice in the same race Tizmetizyou exits, is better than that race shows and rates a look off her fairly promising debut performance. She’s draw comfortably outside and continues to look good in morning drills.

Run Captive Run, a distant second to a runaway winner in her debut in late November, has worked well since and seems certain to improve in today’s second race. Pedroza rides her back and should have this Pender-trained filly within range throughout. Chila Ali is a first time starter with pretty decent workouts to her credit and in a race in which the known element isn’t much, this daughter of Strong Contender could come up a hot item. The O’Neill-trained filly deserves top billing and offers value at 4-1 on the morning line.

In the third race, Castletown was a close fifth in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship during the autumn meeting and has worked well for his comeback for Yakteen. He’s lightly-raced, eligible to improve, and is fast on speed figures, so the son of Orientate is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll prefer the comebacking Midnight Transfer on top. Working like he’s fit and ready for Gaines, the son of Hard Spun is most effective sprinting and loves this track. We’re expecting Bejarano to have him along in time.

Batti Man drops into a claimer in the fourth race for Puype, and despite the rail the Argentine-bred gelding is a serious player in this wide open sprint down the hill. He’s a non-winner in North America but is a strong fit in the speed figure department and switches to Talamo. Mensa Heat is another class dropper with a big look in an open event. Arguably more effective on dirt, the veteran O’Neill-trained gelding ran well when third in the Eddie D. Stakes over this course in September and if he duplicates that effort today he certainly can win. Mr. Bossy Pants is a course specialist with four wins from seven starts and is reunited with Espinoza, who won on him two races back. We’ll go three deep while preferring Batti Man on top; you may find the need to add a few in rolling exotic play.

Alissa G has shown more than enough in the morning to act with moderate maiden claimers and looks very live in the fifth race. Flores has been out to work her in the morning and while the barn isn’t known for winning with first timers this filly could prove to be the exception to the rule. Avery’s Aarabesque is another debut runner with a huge look. Bred for speed (Marino Marini), she has shown flashes of talent in the morning for Machowsky and should come out firing under Bejarano. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Avery’s Arabesque a slight edge.

Persuasive Paul tries turf for the first time in the sixth race and as a son of Olmodovor he’s certainly breed for it. Third in his last pair and working well since his last start, the O’Neill-trained colt looks ready to win. Wine List showed a liking for grass when an excellent second in a similar spot at Hollywood Park in November and has every right to continue his improving pattern today. The son of Giant’s Causeway should draft into an ideal pace prompting position. We’ll give Persuasive Paul preference but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

Mile High Magic stretches out for the first time in the San Fernando Stakes and we’re expecting him to explode. Clearly the controlling speed in the race and training like a middle distance will be well within his range, the Baffert-trained colt offers considerable value at anywhere near his morning line odds of 8-1. You should also consider his stablemate Guilt Trip, a decent fifth in the highly-rated Malibu Stakes on opening day and stretching out to a preferred trip today. He’s another who continues to sizzle in the morning. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool with Mile High Magic on top.

No Silent, first or second in eight of nine career starts and fresh from a sharp tally across town, has the right stalking style for this downhill turf course in the ninth race and should continue his solid, consistent form. Maui Mark won gamely sprinting on turf at Hollywood Park and appears set for a similar try today, though he’s winless in two prior attempts down the hill. Leparoux will have him in a pace prompting spot, ready to pounce when it counts. Sweet Swap was a clever winner down the hill during the autumn meeting and should fire a big shot fresh in his first start since October. Garcia knows him well and will have this Sadler-trained colt doing his best work in the final furlong. Let’s prefer Sweet Swap on top while tripling the race in our rolling exotics.

In the finale, a low level restricted claimer, we’ll spread in rolling exotic play in what appears to be an open affair with plenty of question marks. Non Refundable is stuck on the rail for his first start in more than two months but he’s a perfect one-for-one at Santa Anita and he earned a speed figure two races back that would probably win this race. Et Tu Walker exits a strong race in his recent comeback and seems sure to move forward today for O’Neill (powerful with second-off-layoff runners). The lightly-raced four-year-old has the proper style for this extended sprint distance. Key Rewind didn’t handle the wet fast surface when never a factor in a similar spot last month but on fast ground he deserves another look. The edge goes to Et Tu Walker but on paper this affair looks fairly chaotic.