Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Mon., Dec. 31, 2012)

The Monday opener looks like an ideal spot for Field Report. Freshened since October, the Benchmark gelding returns for Spawr (excellent with comebackers) while landing a cozy outside post in a moderate starter’s allowance sprint. A repeat of his race before last would be more than good enough to win, and his recent drills indicate fitness. Let’s make him a short priced rolling exotic single.

Cuvee Exchange has worked well enough to be a factor in the second race, a maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, and has win-early breeding for a barn that does well with first timers. She looks like a live item under Baze. Pure Blush seems to be improving with racing and might be a late threat at this extended sprint distance. She switches to Bejarano, shortens up, and drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. A very nice half mile drill over this track last week should have her right on edge. Sister Esperanza, away since March but showing enough in the morning for Headley to expect a big effort in her comeback, drops in for a tag for the first time, lands a good outside post and has numbers that can win. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Sister Esperanza.

The third race is a starter’s allowance turf event for fillies and mares. Hawkfinch, first off the claim for Powell, continues to look good in the morning and seems sure to improve a bunch in her second start since being imported from Europe. In a below par field for the level, she looks well spotted and lands Bejarano. She simply should out class this field as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

We’ll try to get by in the fourth race, a high priced maiden claiming abbreviated sprint, using just two. Miss Robyn is a dangerous first timer bred for speed and training well enough to be a considered a threat. The barn doesn’t win with many first timers, but this one looks worthy of a close look. Lady Katfish is strictly the one to beat, though she’s been known to burn money in the past. However, she continues to train well and Bejarano stays aboard, so the Dollase-trained filly likely deserves one more chance.

The fifth race is a strong entry level allowance sprint and finds Mechaya returning from Woodbine where she was third at odds-on in a Canadian-bred stakes last month. She’s trained well, so we’re expecting her to bounce back. Garcia will try to slow her down early. Rosewhitenblue crushed maidens in her debut at Calder and was subsequently purchased privately by Hollendorfer. She has looked the part in the morning and very likely will make a major forward move today. Her style suggests this elongated sprint distance will be ideal. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Mechaya a slight edge on top.

Miss Communication has pretty decent grass form to fall back on and returns to the sod in the sixth race after missing at even money in an off-the-turfer across town. The Mitchell-trained filly switches to Leparoux and can beat this field with a repeat of her sharp maiden claiming win two races back. She’s 7/2 on the morning line and that seems about right. In a race that you either take a stand or spread fairly deep, we’ll make her a rolling exotic single.

Include the Baby turned in a two disastrous performances across town since vanning down from Washington but with this sharp drop in class coupled with a good recent drill the Mitchell-trained-trained mare deserves one more chance in the seventh race. She should be on or near the lead throughout. True Expectations is another big class dropper likely to appreciate this much softer spot. Hernandez won on her two races back and if she can duplicate that effort today she’ll be hard to beat. Of the two, we’ll give slight preference to Include the Baby.

Candy Trophy seeks her third straight win for new trainer West in the eighth race and she looks up to the task. She has good tactical speed and Garcia should have her within range throughout. A solid recent drill indicates she’s ready for another forward move. There’s value here in the straight pool at 5-1 on the morning line.

The nightcap appears to be a better than par maiden state bred race for juveniles. Omega Star ran extremely well in his debut earlier this month at Aqueduct, finishing second in a fast, highly-rated affair. He arrives fit and ready for Shirreffs and if he can avoid trouble from the rail he’ll be hard to deny. Storm Fighter has worked well enough to be considered a factor in his debut for Headley. He’s bred to be quick and looks the part. Tribal Dude is another dangerous newcomer with speed breeding and a solid work tab. The O’Neill-trained colt is a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.

Comments

leonardo
Jan 03, 2013
at 21:48

Good afternoon Mr. Jeff Siegel's, I'm from uruguay, here we see with great interest the American races, I could send your data to Santa Anita Park, Friday and Saturday, study those races, I know how good I am, forecasting?. Thank you. leonardo

Joe W
Dec 31, 2012
at 13:37

JT, Jeff didn't make you bet it. And as for the five winning, he was a first time gelding. Which was not listed in the overnights. Which of course is BS. That being said I hope the rest of his picks come in as I have them in the pick 5. Did play some back up tickets in the pick 4. Anyway don't play other's picks blindly. Good luck to all the rest of the day.

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 14:04

I liked the 5 for running decently against Red Defense. That was on the turf, but that is some heavy competition.

Joe W
Dec 31, 2012
at 13:46

As for the three Headley horses, I would give the nod to San Onefre who gets a regular rider for Headley. As for the works, I love that, sure they worked in company and should be well seasoned for debut with the gate works together. Would like to know which of the three was inside on each work.

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 17:33

Great analysis. You must have got the exacta or tri even. At 15 to 1 you deserve a reward.

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 15:28

I was thinking that San Onofre was the youngest of the three. I was leaning toward Take A Risk-the oldest.

JT
Dec 31, 2012
at 13:16

Way to burn up a single (6) on a pick 5 ticket Jeff, asswhole

Anonymous
Dec 31, 2012
at 14:01

Try picking your own. Every race is a puzzle. You have to love solving puzzles, mysteries.

Anonymous
Dec 31, 2012
at 12:57

Anyone think include the baby is a standout on the drop?

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 12:53

Sorry for the repeated posts. There is a long delay before they appear on the blog. The old website was a lot quicker in responding.

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 12:52

Jeff, how do you sort out the three Headley horses? Near identical times in their workouts.

Anonymous
Dec 31, 2012
at 12:26

Who can sort out the three Headley horses in the last race? All three worked out on the same days with almost identical times. Great effort must be used in order to work them out in same fractions. Another puzzle.

Del
Dec 31, 2012
at 12:20

One thing I have to comment on is the last race and the Headley horses. Three Headley entries all worked out by the wizard on the same days with near identical times on key dates. Never seen such a thing since I've been handicapping. At least since I've handicapped with a clue. But now there's this new puzzle to sort out. One thing in this race, there doesn't seem to be a real speed horse.

Joe W.
Dec 31, 2012
at 11:15

My picks are very close to yours. So don't bet to heavy Mr. Siegel, I have been on a bad streak. Only race we differed was in the seventh. I prefer the 8 Tweetie Pie, back on dirt and two turns although race could be a 1/16th to long. And also I will use the 5 Vee. won at this level at BHP, could get a fair price as she has not run on fast dirt before. Throw out the last and feel she fits here. Good Luck

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