Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Sun., Oct. 28, 2012)

We have another Pick-6 carryover for the Sunday program, with $68,950 already in the till.

In the opener #2 Fiftyshadesofhay has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Baffert and looks ready to graduate while trying a distance she’s certainly bred to like. Bejarano stays aboard and in a below par field for the level the daughter of Pulpit should draft into a nice pace prompting position and then go on with it when ready.

The second race, a strong conditioned allowance sprint, offers a rematch between #2 Don Tito and #3 So Brilliant. Don Tito just defeated his chief rival in a strong allowance affair Oct. 6 and picks up a couple of pounds off that win. So Brilliant had a right to be a tad rusty when fourth off an 11 month layoff but he’s trained well since and should be primed and ready today. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring So Brilliant on top.

We’ll double the third race, a $12,500 claimer at a flat mile. #3 Achak takes a nosedive in class for O’Neill and if he has one good one left he’ll be hard to beat. The veteran gelding returns to the main track while switching to Maldonado and should be doing his best work in the final furlong. #6 Tiz Liberty crushed a bit softer field earlier this month over this track and earned a career top speed figure in the process. If he can turn in two alike, he could win right back; we’ll give him slight preference.

#2 Hurricane Lake really should handle his foes in the fourth race, a $40,000 claimer on turf at a mile. He continues to look good in the morning for Spawr and looks quite capable of producing the last run. He’s a solid fit in the speed figure department and Quinonez knows him well. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Maiden claimers meet at six furlongs in the fifth race and #5 Miss Sweet Afleet drops for the money run after a troubled trip vs. tougher here earlier this month. She switches to Espinoza and if she can leave with her field today the daughter of Afleet Alex should be along in time.

In the sixth race, a mile turf event for state bred maidens, #2 Ashley’s Bambino and #3 Jules Journey seem like the two logical contenders. Ashley’s Bambino retains Bejarano after a comeback sprint prep down the hill and should be fitter and tougher today. Jules Journey flashed improvement in his first try on turf (bred for it) when a closing third in the same race Ashley’s Bambino exits and has come back to train in very sharp style since that race for Cassidy. The son of Good Journey has run well around two turns in the past so the extra distance won’t be an issue. We’ll press with Jules Journey on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

The seventh race is a tough, competitive affair, we’ll go three deep in a six runner line-up in our rolling exotics. #1 Golden Production graduated impressively over this track recently and tries two turns for the first time; she lands the good rail and has the pedigree to get the trip. #2 Glowing Spirit, second in a photo in a Fairplex Park stakes event, might find herself as the controlling speed and if she does she could get very brave. #6 Maker Or Breaker, a beaten choice at Del Mar in her last outing, has plenty of upside and will be making just her third career start for Baffert. She’ll be dangerous from off the pace. Golden Production gets a slight edge and you may want to press a bit with her on top.

The featured Lure Stakes for middle distance turf runners could boil down to the two inside runners, #1 Red Sun and #2 Ryehill Dancer. Red Sun stretches out to what should be a more comfortable distance for him, switches to Bejarano and lands the favorable rail. He’ll be on the front end and always is very dangerous as the controlling speed. Ryehill Dancer, away since May of last year, has trained like he’s fit and ready for Canani and has run well fresh in the past. If he’s close to what he once was, the veteran gelding will out class this field. Both should be used in your rolling exotics with preference to Ryehill Dancer.

The finale is an abbreviated maiden claiming sprint for juveniles; we’ll go two deep and hope that’s enough. #2 Generally Ours has an improving pattern for Solis and with another forward move could be a strong factor every step of the way. Toss him in. We’ll prefer on top #12 Majestic Patron, off slowly in his debut and a non factor but continuing to work well and adding the hood while switching to Maldonado. He should be able to show his best stuff today.