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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., April 13, 2012)
After encountering nothing but chalk yesterday let’s hope there are a few price possibilities on this Friday the 13th program. The opener is a maiden miler for older fillies and mares and although she’s exiting a maiden claimer #5 Ke Kukui has the edge in the speed figure department and looks ready to graduate. The Bell-trained daughter of Tiznow should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip outside and we’re expecting her to kick on with it when it counts.
#3 R Vicarious Girl doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in the second race, a bottom rung middle distance claimer for fillies and mares. She’s won 16 races during her long career and while she’s not what she used to be the Mitchell-trained eight-year-old should find a way to beat this field on past class.
#1 Sweet Nectar won at first asking in clever fashion, was promptly claimed by Belvoir, and makes her second career start in today’s third race, a starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Atticus should control this affair from gate to wire.
We’ll double the fourth race, a $16,000 claimer for 3-year-olds. #3 Jack O Lyn returns to his winning level for hot trainer Mullins and this consistent gelding seems well place for another big run. He’s the one to but we’ll also consider #5 Tribal Dreams, first off the claim for Armstrong and likely to enjoy a comfortable pace prompting trip from his good outside post.
The fifth race is a modest state bred maiden allowance affair at a mile on turf; a little certainly will go a long way. #4 Shewhomustbeobeyed, a good runner-up against a stronger field at nine furlongs last time out, shortens up today and should be tough to deny. We’ll also toss in #5 The Grans, a nine race maiden but with figures that fit and a good closing second down the hill in her most recent outing.
A very soft band of maiden claimers go a mile in the sixth race and we’ll try to survive in our rolling exotics using #2 Blazing Marino and #3 King’s Red Journey. The former finished a fair third in a similar spot last month but this seems like an easier group so he may not have to improve much at all to win; the latter drops in for a tag for the first time while also trying conventional dirt and is dangerous pretty much by default.
The seventh race, an entry level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares, may boil down to #4 Bobina and #7 Island Paradise and both should be included in your rolling exotics. Bobina won at first asking like a good thing for Avila and earned a nice figure in the process; she’s wheeled back on short rest so there’s a question whether she can repeat that effort today. Island Paradise, a pretty nice third in the Miesque Stakes last November at Hollywood Park, has been working like she’s fit and ready for Gallagher should be heard from in the final furlong.
The finale is a weak maiden claimer for bottom rung fillies and mares at the abbreviated sprint distance of five furlongs. We suggest you use as many as you can afford; we’ll try to get by with #4 Warren’s Performer (continues to work nicely and with back figures that would win); #6 Alpine Breeze (a sneaky first timer from the clever Marty Jones barn with a useful work tab); and #7 Western Welcome (also training well and a threat using the “stranger danger” angle).