Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., April 6, 2012)

A challenging Friday program begins somewhat quietly with a five runner field in the opener, a $40,000 claiming sprint restricted to 4-year-old fillies. #1 All On the Table exits a very strong race and fits nicely with these based on speed figures while switching to Pedroza. The rail shouldn’t be an issue. #5 Moonstruck Maya has back numbers that would bury this field and is better than her last two races indicate. She lands the favorable outside post, adds blinkers, and switches to Gomez, so today could be her day.

We’ll double the second race in our rolling exotics, using #5 Kids Table and #6 She’s Very Rare in this $12,500 sprint for distaffers. Kids Table moves up a notch for Morey following a recent claim and that’s a good thing (30% with a flat bet profit with this angle). A repeat of her nice score three runs back will make her tough to beat today. She’s Very Rare, a $16,000 Mikus claim, drops a notch after sitting out her jail term; she retains Bejarano and her highly rated win two races back makes her a “must use.”

$32,000 claiming fillies and mares compete at nine furlongs on turf in the first leg of the Pick-6 sequence, a race you may wish to spread in your rolling exotic play. #2 Last Sting, a class dropper with good form over this course, retains Rosario and rates a big look off her nice starter’s allowance score two runs back. She never really fired when well-beaten as the choice in a very strong first level allowance event last month but she’s worked well since and should bounce back. #4 Going for a Spin, first off the claim for Armstrong, also failed as the choice last time out when second in a $25,000 claimer but she lands Bejarano today and is capable of at least getting a piece of it. #6 Charm the Crowd, a $25,000 Spawr claim, is genuine and consistent and should fire another big shot while seeking her fourth win from her last five starts. Low profile jockey Vergara, who just won on her, retains the mount.

Bottom rung maiden claiming older fillies and mares meet in the fourth race at one mile; in a very difficult affair none of these are trustworthy. We’ll give slight preference to #1 Dani’s Sis, stretching out for the first time while landing the rail and switching to Talamo for good trainer Puype. She’s bred to run long and with only three prior starts likely has considerably more upside than most of the others. She’s 3-1 on the morning line and that seems fair. #3 Missie Ky I You is an 18-race maiden and has burned money in each of her last two but she has numbers that make her a threat and she switches to Bejarano, so use her if you can afford to. #5 Swiss Charm retains Rosario and her recent runner up effort at seven furlongs – despite the low speed figure – indicates she’s at least in some kind of current form. Nothing in here, really, would surprise us.

The fifth race is a downhill turf sprint for tough, seasoned $40,000 older claimers and is another race that has more than a few contenders. #2 He’s a Dance Star, a $40,000 claim last summer by Gallagher, makes his first start since and could be a threat if ready and the works are good enough to assume he is. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s probably worth tossing in. #4 El Vino, a winner under identical conditions two months ago, makes his first start since and a recent sharp five furlong move indicates he’s ready to resume where he left off. The veteran son of Include represents the best of the closers. These are the two we’ll be using and we’re hoping that’s enough.

The sixth race is an abbreviated sprint for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares; we’re going to take a stand and single #6 After Later. She drops to a realistic spot while switching to Rosario and a repeat of her race before last would be good enough to beat this group. A recent sharp half mile drill should have her on edge and the daughter of Orientate looks quite capable of becoming the controlling speed. Her morning line odds of 5/2 seem reasonable.

First level allowance types meet at a mile on turf in today’s featured seventh race; this is another open affair that could go in several different directions. #4 Cat Talk ran into a roadblock in the final furlong of his recent comeback race vs. similar last month yet was beaten just over a length; the Cassidy-trained gelding has looked especially sharp in the morning since and Smith stays aboard. Both of his career wins came in gate-to-wire fashion but there’s other speed in here so a pace duel is possible. #5 Don Perico is that so-called “other speed” and pretty much has one way go, unless Bejarano decides to try to rate him. His sprint numbers make him a threat, but the son of In Excess has never really struck us as a two-turn type. #8 Circle the Moon, freshened for two months, won a state bred allowance race when last seen and did so with a sharp speed figure. Talamo stays aboard for Headley and he’s another speed type who will be insuring a legitimate pace. Tough race, for sure.

The nightcap is no picnic, either. The three main contenders in this maiden claiming state bred sprint for 3-yar-olds fillies would appear to be #3 Always a Chance (dropping in class and switching to Talamo with speed figures that fit); #6 Natalie’s Academy (first time for a tag in her comeback for Machowsky and landing Bejarano); and #7 Warren’s Mo Money (a beaten choice vs. similar in her comeback but a contender based on speed figures and getting a weight break with bug boy Flores).