Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thu., March 8, 2012)

The Thursday program is a little light in quality; we’ll try to make the best of it. #2 Fluxx is 3/5 on the morning line in today’s opener; she’s dropping into a claimer for the first time while being re-equipped with blinkers and switching to bug boy Flores. She’s also a standout on numbers. A small case can be made for #3 Clearly Casual, a class dropper with early speed and with room to improve while making just her third career start.

The second race is a bottom rung maiden claimer for older sprinters and we’ll consider two in our rolling exotic play, #4 Goux Would Do and #8 Our Last Monte. The former drops from straight maiden company to this $20,000 seller for Mandella while gaining bug boy Flores, and very likely will improve considerably from his lackluster debut. The latter is an eight race maiden coming off an improved try and looks logical, though at 7/5 on the morning line he really doesn’t offer much in the way of value.

The Pick-6 begins in the third race and should boil down to #1 Briteness and #4 Twelve Folds. These two actually faced each in a maiden sprint Jan. 8 and that day it was no contest, with Twelve Folds winning by more than eight lengths. We’re expecting it to much more competitive today, as Briteness has since broken her maiden by more than 10 lengths while Twelve Folds just finished second in a similar first level allowance sprint as the 6/5 favorite.

The fourth race is another maiden claimer, this one for $30,000 3-year-old fillies. #2 Ralphy Girl takes a one level class drop and should stick better in this league; she’s shown plenty of zip but not a whole lot of stick so far. #5 Lemon Hero, is a route-to-sprint, blinkers off, class dropper for Eurton and should find this company much more to her liking. Both are worth using in rolling exotic play with preference to Lemon Hero.

Sophomore fillies in the $32,000 claiming ranks sprint down the hill in the fifth race. #5 Love My Way is realistically spotted by Machowsky after breaking her maiden in a $50,000 claimer last month. Her pedigree suggests she’ll like the turf and in fact she ran well over the Hollywood Park lawn in December. Bejarano stays aboard and will try to keep her going on the front end throughout.

We find the sixth race very difficult with nothing to trust. #4 Blue Tambourine seems as good as any; she’s dropping dramatically for Miller following a pair of recent dull performances and may have found her friends today. Exiting a pair of hot sprints and stretching out to what might be her favorite distance, the daughter of Proud Citizen could grab control early and never look back. Or not. Tread lightly.

Today’s feature is a one mile turf event for entry level fillies and mares. #2 Meltarib just beat a state bred field and today tackles open company; a repeat of her last effort makes her a major player right back. #5 Caelis is improving as she gets acclimated for Miller; with another forward move she’ll be in the thick of things late. #7 Last Sting won a nice starter’s allowance turf event last month with her typical solid speed figure and this genuine and consistent Sadler-trained mare should be primed for another big effort. All three are usable in rolling exotic play; we’re expecting Rosario and Last Sting to produce the last run.

The finale is a decent straight maiden state bred sprint for 3-year-olds. #5 Derby Gold has been burning up the track in the morning for Baffert and looks like another in a long list of well-meant first timers from this barn. The son of Bertrando cost $105,000 as a yearling so you know he’s well-regarded. #9 Alworth flashed some ability in his debut when second and was promptly claimed for $40,000 by Lewis. The son of Sea of Secrets seems like the best of the known element but it’s questionable if he’ll be good enough to beat a hot shot type like Derby Gold if that one is as good as he works suggest he might be.