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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Fri., March 2, 2012)
Big ‘Cap eve begins with an early daily double that doesn’t offer much in the way of value. The two favorites in the opener are class droppers - #2 Arrangement and #4 Gatherathealter – and both have a right to win this $25,000 claiming turf sprint restricted to four year olds. Arrangement ran well down the hill during the autumn meeting and a repeat of that race today most likely would be good enough to win. Gatheratthelater returns to his favorite surface – he’s won half of his four career starts on grass - and this Baffert-trained gelding retains Rosario while dropping a notch below his claim level. He’s been used recently as a work mate for Dubai-bound Game On Dude and has more than held his own.
The second race is a pass in our book. It’s a five horse race containing two recent Mike Mitchell claims, #2 Coluda, the 8/5 morning line favorite dropping a notching below his claim level, and #5 Hidden Blessing, doing the same in his first start since being haltered for this barn that wins at 33% and produces a flat bet profit with this maneuver. If you bump into Mike at the track, ask him which one he likes.
The third race begins the Pick-6 sequence and seems like a fine spot for #4 Fabulous Fashion to earn her diploma. She was a distant second to a runaway winner in a fast, highly-rated state bred maiden sprint on the main track in her debut and could easily improve a bunch today for top trainer Carla Gaines (sensational with second time starters). Bejarano rides her back and the daughter of E Dubai continues to look very impressive in the morning. In what appears to be a below par field for the level, she offers value both in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.
The fourth race is a bottom rung claiming sprint that appears to be a prime spot for #2 Clear to Canada. He’s never been terribly keen on winning (3-for-25 with 12 seconds and thirds) but the Miller-trained gelding switches to Rosario, exits a fairly decent race and drops for the money run today. A nice, easy breeze since his last race should have him on edge, and we’re expecting the son of Storm Victory to produce the last run at this extended sprint distance.
Maiden 3-year-old fillies sprint down the hill in the fifth race and it marks the debut of the well regarded #3 Unbridled Ambition. The Jones-trained filly has done everything right in the morning and doesn’t really have all that much to beat in this race restricted to California-breds. She seems fit and ready for a trainer whose first timers often run better than they work, and we’re anticipating that the daughter of Broken Vow will be along in plenty of time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
The sixth race is a maiden claiming abbreviated dash for $30,000 3-year-olds and seems like a perfect spot for the comebacking #8 Run for Miles. The son of Game Plan showed some ability last summer at Del Mar and has trained like a better type this time around for Miller. In an unusually weak race for the level, Run for Miles looks ready to dominate.
Today’s feature is an excellent conditioned allowance affair at a mile on turf and we’re going to focus on #1 Red Defense and #2 Leroy’s Dynameaux. The Gaines-trained Red Defense stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to enjoy the added ground. From the good inside post, the son of Redattore should be on or near the lead throughout. Leroy’s Dynameaux is a threat at any distance and retains Bejarano after finishing fast to be a third in an excellent recent downhill turf sprint. He’s overdue for a win and with good racing luck today could be along in time.
The finale is a seven furlong maiden claiming sprint for bottom rung older fillies and mares. We’ll go two-deep and hope that’s enough. #5 Dani’s Sis has an improving pattern and the right style for this extended sprint distance. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Flores and seems like the logical top pick. We’ll also use #11 Lorenbray, adding blinkers for her first start since being claimed by Mitchell last August. She should fire a big shot fresh and has the benefit of the comfortable outside post.