Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis (Thu., March 1, 2012)

An enticing $135,412 Pick-6 carryover adds appeal to a Thursday program that ushers in Big ‘Cap week.

The opener looks very chalky – it’s a six runner field for older straight maiden fillies and mares – and probably should be reduced to #4 Oulaoulala and #5 Jaredella. The former performed well in her debut when third in a solid effort and this nicely-bred daughter of Arch has trained solidly since, while the latter, a route-to-sprint play for Sadler, switches back to the main track and ran a career top number under similar conditions over this surface last year. There’s simply not much to work with here.

The second race pretty much boils down to #2 Summer Movie and his current condition. Claimed for $25,000 out of a race in which he failed to make the course, the O’Neill-trained horse surfaces for $10,000 today and holds an enormous edge if he’s anywhere close to being healthy. A recent sharp five furlong drill is a positive sign, but he’s clearly for sale and probably won’t offer much value on the tote.

The Pick-6 begins with the third race and likely to receive the bulk of the action are #1 Five Silver Stars and #4 Sarasota Sunshine, 8/5 and 7/5 on the morning line, respectively. Though she could finish only second as the favorite in a recent downhill turf sprint, Five Silver Stars ran well enough to deserve another look, especially from the rail on the stretch-out and with Bejarano staying aboard. Sarasota Sunshine takes a two level class drop for Mitchell while removing blinkers and retaining Rosario. She’s easily the controlling speed, although unproven at this trip. This is another event offering little to no value.

The fourth race is a high priced maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies and should be a bit more challenging than the early races. #2 Dance Thewayyouare earned a competitive figure when a game second against lesser recently (she was more than six clear of the others) and could fit in this league, though the short rest (11 days) is a bit of a concern. #5 Too Five n’ Ten is a fast-working first timer from the Koriner stable and is bred to win early (Songandaprayer). She appears plenty fit and looks dangerous; you have to use her. #7 T J’s Stormy Wit was claimed out of her debut by Sadler for $30,000 (a promising second in a five furlong dash); she returns on the raise, gets hot bug boy Flores, a break in the weights, and recently worked in 46 and change, so a forward move can be expected. Of the three, Too Five’n Ten is the best price on the morning line (4-1) and seems especially intriguing so we’ll put her on top while also including the other two in our rolling exotics.

Older $50,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the fifth race and there some price opportunities available, especially if you have the courage to take a stand against one of the favorites, #8 Talktomuch. The Mitchell-trained mare went backward when a disappointing fourth vs. tougher in a second-off-the-layoff effort less than two weeks ago. She could bounce back and win, but let’s try to get creative. #1 Missdealornodeal was overmatched in a Turf Paradise main track sprint last time out (a race won by subsequent Phoenix Gold Cup winner Derive), but she’s properly spotted today while rejoining the Carla Gaines barn and landing Bejarano. She seems most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter and gets ideal conditions today, though the rail post probably isn’t much help. #2 Linda Lou was quite impressive storming from behind to win a lesser race over this course and distance in January; she didn’t get untracked in a tougher spot around two turns recently but should bounce back in a big way today while being reunited with Rosario. #4 Yer Woman is 15-1 on the morning line but she’s better than that. A fairly useful sprinter in England a couple of years back, she made her U.S. debut up north recently and ran better than the line will show when finding her best stride late to finish a strong second. She’s in top hands, has the proper style for the course and has a legitimate long shot chance to at least hit the board.

The sixth race is an abbreviated sprint for $20,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies, with #4 One Magical Girl the 2-1 morning line favorite. She’s clearly a need-the-lead type but will have to deal with #2 Help Me Hannah, who adds blinkers and is likely to bust out and go from her inside draw. If One Magical Girl (under Rosario) can accept the role as a stalker, she can win; otherwise she could be vulnerable again in the final furlong, as she has been in her last two starts against tougher rivals. #7 Maryjean could be the beneficiary of a hot early pace; she likes to settle and make a run and had a recent three furlong bullet blowout for new trainer Hess following a $16,000 claim. This race looks a bit chaotic so proceed with caution.

The feature today is a nine furlong two-other-than turf race for fillies and mares and marks the U.S. debut of the well-regarded French import #1 Camelia Rose. Beaten just over a length in the Gr. 1 Prix Saint-Alary last spring at Longchamp, she surfaces for top young trainer Callaghan following an impressive series of local drills that should have her fit and ready. Combining her European form with the presence of Rosario in the saddle and a lovely inside draw, the daughter of Oratorio should be a short priced rolling exotic single for most small ticket Pick-6 players.

The nightcap is a maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies and looks likely to be won by #9 Live the Forth, a pretty quick filly who was fourth in a similar abbreviated dash in her recent comeback in a race that was stronger than par. She retains Rosario, appear to have little to beat, and may wind up being a rolling exotic single by default. If you can afford to go a bit deeper you should also consider #5 Sunland Village, a first timer with an okay work tab for Cerin; and #6 Queen Mercury, a distant fourth in a much tougher race in her debut and working well since for Yakteen.