Jeff Siegel's Analysis for Sunday, March 14, 2010

Today’s program – while lacking yesterday’s star power – seems much more attractive from a handicapping standpoint and several of the rolling exotics offer the potential for a nice payoff. We’ll play all but the first race – a $20,000 claimer that should be won by one of the Mullins entrants (#1 Laser Point or #2 Fenice) and begin our action in the second event.

#2 Megastar and #3 Gold Aly are coming up to this maiden turf miler the right way and both should fire their best shots. The former ran well two-turning over the Hollywood Park lawn in December, exits a fast sprint for good trainer Ellis and is the deserving morning line choice at 9/5. Gold Aly, with two sprints under his belt, should be ready to stretch out and do his thing for Mullins. He exits a live, productive heat and there’s no reason he shouldn’t route at least as well as he sprints. We’ll use them both in our rolling daily double and pick-3.

The third race looks like a rematch between #1 General Dan and #5 Candy Arches, first and third respectively in a similar $8,000 claimer Feb. 28. General Dan makes a rider switch to Baze, lands the good inside post, removes blinkers and sports a bullet work since ran. Candy Arches appears to be the controlling speed again and is always dangerous when left unpressured on the front end. We’ll use them both in our rolling exotics.

The fourth race, a better than average maiden turf affair for 3-year-olds, should be won by #4 Hockley, #8 Royal F J, or #10 Juniper Pass and we'll include all three on all of our rolling exotic tickets. Hockley missed by a head with a perfect trip in his most recent start in late January but shortens up to a mile today and may pack a better punch at this trip. Gomez stays aboard. Royal F J has been a money burner of late – he’s failed as the choice in three straight races – but he switches to Bejarano and the colt that just beat him came back to win. Juniper Pass had a nice prep down the hill, finishing with purpose while clearly wanting more ground, and although the outside post is a killer, he’s worth tossing in at 12-1 on the morning line.

We’ll double the fifth race, using #3 Past Curfew and #6 Fleet Royale with preference to the former. The Sherman-trained filly has an improving pattern and should continue to move forward in this, her third start off a layoff. Garcia should have her within striking range throughout. Fleet Royale, in the money in her last three, has won just once from 13 starts but generally is in the thick of things and exits a productive heat. She’ll have clear sailing outside and has back numbers that make her dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line.

#1 El Nadia, an upset winner for Steve Knapp in her U.S. debut last month, surfaces in Jerry Hollendorfer’s stable today via a private purchase and could be tough right back with only slight improvement in the sixth race, a turf miler for first level allowance fillies and mares. She lands the good rail, showed she could get this trip in New Zealand and seems better than her 8-1 morning line odds. She’s a “must use” in all of our exotics. #5 Always in Style looked good beating state bred foes last month with an impressive late kick and should be dangerous right back despite moving to open company. Talamo rides her back. #7 Madel is lightly raced and improving and has the speed figures to warrant a big look. She’s coming back in two weeks – a bit quicker than we’d prefer – but she’s a perfect one-for-one on turf and Solis knows her well. We’ll use these three in an exacta/trifecta box and in all of our rolling exotics as well.

The seventh race is for maiden claimers and should be dominated by #1 Chimu, #2 Bettingonthefly and #4 Saarface and all three should be included in your rolling exotic tickets. Chimu must avoid trouble from the rail but he exits a very strong race for the level and should make another forward move with Bejarano staying aboard. Bettingonthefly, in the money in both of his starts since returning from a long layoff, does his best running from off the pace and should appreciate this extended sprint trip. Saarface makes his first start since chasing straight maidens nine months ago as a young juvenile at Hollywood Park. He’s trained well enough to be fit and ready for O’Neill, gets blinkers and Gomez, and looks very live at 7/2 on the morning line.

Older fillies and mares sprint down the hill in today’s feature race, a overnight stakes for fillies and mares. Spread this race if you can afford to; otherwise concentrate on #5 Dreamt; #8 Czechers, and #10 Sweeter Still. Dreamt was guzzled back early and was given too much to do when finishing strongly but too late in the Wishing Well Stakes last month but switches to Mike Baze and should be closer to the action early on today. She continues to train well and would beat this field with a repeat of her best French efforts. Czechers ran very well down the hill in the Monrovia ‘Cap earlier this season and gets similar conditions today while switching to Bejarano. She has plenty of speed but might appreciate the same type of patient handling she received in the Wishing Well. Sweeter Still launches a comeback for Mullins, has shown the ability to win off layoffs in the past, and truly loves this turf course. She’s worked like she’s ready and should be rolling in the final furlong.

The ninth race is maiden claiming route affair for 3-year-olds and looks like a fairly decent race going in. #1 California Colonel finished second as the favorite in a similar spot last month and would need only slight improvement to graduate today for Mullins. He’s the likely choice. #3 Ready for Change drops into a claimer for the first time, removes blinkers, and exits a much tougher straight maiden event. He gets Bejarano and looks extremely dangerous in this league. #9 My Friend Bernie has improving form for Mitchell, has worked well since his last race and likely will continue to progress with experience. Baze rides him back. All three of these should be used in your exotics.