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Jeff Siegel's Analysis for Saturday, Jan. 9, 2010
The Pick-6 carryover of $76,179 adds spice to a strong 9-race program and there will be plenty of price opportunities to bolster a potentially lucrative payoff.
The first race, a maiden claiming dash for 3-year-old fillies, should boil down to #4 Moonskipper and #6 Extra Energy and both should be used in rolling exotic plays. Moonskipper was too far back early and could only muster a mild late bid to finish third as the choice in a similar affair last month. Her previous form against straight maiden types wasn’t bad, so she probably deserves a chance to make amends today. Extra Energy stretches out, removes blinkers, retains Bejarano and hails from a stable that excels with stretch-out plays.
We’ll double the second race using #2 Da Bomb and #5 Multitasker in our rolling exotics. Da Bomb has won half of her eight career starts and should fire another big shot today, while Multitasker drops to her lowest level ever, retains Rosario, and has the edge in the speed figure department. Either one can win.
#3 Cadillac and #4 Calimonco figure to battle things out in the third race, a downhill turf dash that doesn’t have a whole lot of pace to it. Cadillac is strictly a stretch runner but given the likely pace scenario shouldn’t be far back, and he’s a proven commodity over the course for high percentage connections. Calimonco is a useful Midwest invader and gets Gomez; the lightly-raced Storm Cat colt has rising speed figures and shortens up to what should be an ideal trip.
Maiden claimers kick off the Pick-6 in the fourth race and we suggest you use as many as you can afford to in an unclassified affair. #2 Flashy Traveler is an eight-race maiden but gets off the rail and retains Rosario, and she’ll be a factor with his best effort. #6 Dame Camille has trained nicely for her comeback and likely is better than her only try last year might indicate. She actually earned a decent number when fifth vs. slightly tougher foes in that outing and has trained pretty nicely for Powell. Beware. It’s Partytime has hit the board in three of six career starts, and is another who has a look in a rather modest affair.
The fifth race, an extended sprint for hard knocking mid-grade claimers, should showcase #2 Spot the Diplomat and #5 Self Insured, and those are the two we’re using. You might find the need to go a bit deeper. Spot the Diplomat, a winner of two of his last three, must be considered once again in his present form, but our top pick would be Self Insured for the Mullins-Rosario team. He’s a route to sprint play and seven furlongs strikes us as his premium trip.
The Paseana Handicap for older fillies and mares finds #4 Silver Swallow exiting a series of graded stakes and looks tough to beat in this overnight affair. She’s only 3-for-21 lifetime (with eight seconds) so she might be a hard one to trust, but she’s a “must use” no matter how you slice it. The one to fear most is #7 St. Trinians, very impressive in two runaway allowance scores since being imported from England. The Mitchell-trained mare is moving up considerably in class, but her numbers make her a fit and she continues to train like something pretty special.
Maidens down the hill usually require a spread and in today’s seventh race we’ll go three-deep in our exotics. #1 Locksley Hall, second in both of his starts in England, has trained like he’s ready to roll in his U. S. debut and looks very live with Gomez taking the call. #4 Kuro has shown he can run some, continues to work well, and figures to be prominent throughout. #7 Mister Do It, second in his last pair, retains Solis and rates a big look off his good grass try at Hollywood Park two runs back.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner #7 Furthest Land returns from Florida where he was being kept on edge and definitely is the one to beat in the eighth race, the San Pasqual Handicap. A synthetic track specialist (unbeaten in three starts), the Mike Maker-trained gelding is reunited with Gomez and looks like a short price on a paper. If you’re inclined to double the race, consider #1 Cherokee Artist, winner of the Presque Isle Downs Mile over a synthetic track two runs back and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride surface as well. He’ll enjoy a soft trip inside and looks dangerous under Bejarano.
Bottom of the barrel claimers make the ninth race a very difficult proposition to finish off the Pick-6 and the only way to feel truly confident about the event is to buy the race. If that’s not practical, use #1 Turkish Victory, #6 Legendary Mud and #11 Swiss Ski and keep your fingers crossed. Turkish Victory is stuck on the rail but drops to his lowest level ever and has hot trainer Marty Jones and hot rider Victor Espinoza to help out. Legendary Mud is another class dropper and has a decent recent try over the track. He switches to Rosario and should be set for his best. Swiss Ski has the perfect style for this extended sprint and drops for the money run for Carava. He’s our top pick.