Handicapping Picks for 10/06/2012

Race #8 - Rating = 2
#7 Reneesgotzip - Fair odds 9/5
#2 Amazombie - Fair odds 2/1
#1 Castletown - Fair odds 5/2

The filly Reneesgotzip takes on males today and based on her big win last time out at Del Mar with a 114 Equibase Speed Figure can compete with even last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Amazombie. In this short field, Reneesgotzip can get the lead from the outside, with only Castletown a threat to keeping her from doing that, and if she relaxes on the lead as she did in the CERF Stakes last month at Del Mar, while improving in her 2nd start following 4 months off, she can post the upset. Amazombie has no knocks, with 2 wins in his last 3 starts and having won this race last year when it carried the name Ancient Title Stakes. That being said, the back-to-back 104 figures he earned recently and the fact he could be at the mercy if a just slightly slower than average early pace scenario in this race may mean he ends up 2nd before moving on to defend his title next month. Castletown did come from off the pace for 2nd earlier in the year so if Reneesgotzip gets the early lead as expected he may not fold as some need the lead types do, having improved to a strong 108 figure last out in his 2nd start in blinkers (in which he’s 2 for 2) and certainly lightly enough raced to run even better today to post the upset.
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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires, Keeneland Select and TVG handicapping stores.