Handicapping Picks for 04/21/2012

Race #9 - Rating = 3

#3 Glowing Spirit - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Vamo a Galupiar - Fair odds 5/2
#4 Capital Plan - Fair odds 5/2

Exacta: Box 3,4,5

I sense very little early pace in this 10 furlong turf race, and as such Glowing Spirit could get an easy early lead and never look back just as she did on 1/8 at this distance on this course when wearing blinkers for the first time. She has led early and faded late in her two races since but with the jockey change to Espinoza and getting a good inside post, for a sharp trainer in Avila, she could slow things down tremendously on the front end today and hang on for the upset win.

Vamo a Galupiar just won the similar Santa Ana Handicap at 9 furlongs on this course on 3/25, two before that winning the non-graded Megahertz Stakes at a mile. She should be able to get the extra 1/8 of a mile today and with Smith riding back after being up for the 1st time last out she has every right to win her 2nd graded stakes in a row if she can run down the possible lone frontrunner in the stretch.

Capital Plan made up 10 lengths in short order when rallying mid-race from 3rd to lead in the stretch in her most recent race, then battled down to the wire to come up a neck short in the photo. Earning a career best 104 Equibase Speed Figure with that effort, which stacks up nicely with the 103 Vamo a Galupiar earned winning the similar Santa Ana Stakes last month, Capital Plan also won at this 10 furlong trip last fall on this course and as such has a shot to post the mild upset in this field by repeating or improving upon her last start.

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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires, Keeneland Select and TVG handicapping stores.