Handicapping Picks for 04/14/2012

Race #8 - Rating = 2
#4 Broken Dreams - Fair odds 9/5
#5 Mizdirection - Fair odds 9/5
#1 Unzip Me - Fair odds 2/1

Broken Dreams has never been worse than 2nd in three previous tries down this specialist’s hillside turf course, the best of the 3 efforts coming last September, the last time she raced at the trip, when winning the nearly identical Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy Stakes and earning a career best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. She has finished 2nd to Unzip Me three times in the past couple of years while beating her twice and given she’s going to go to post at much higher odds than the course specialist, she’s a great bet to return to winning form and post the upset in this situation.

Mizdirection is on a tear, having won 3 in a row including the nearly identical Grade 3 Monrovia Stakes in January. Although she only earned a 102 figure in the Monrovia, she came back to earn a career best 113 (same as Broken Dreams in the Maddy) figure winning the non-graded Clocker’s Corner Stakes in February, and in her only meeting with Unzip Me she won so Mizdirection has every right to win her 4th race and 3rd stakes race in a row today.

Unzip Me is now 12 for 20 on grass in her career but more importantly 7 for 11 down the hill, having earned nearly $450,000 at this specialist’s trip. After disappointing in the Monrovia, she redeemed herself to win the non-graded Wishing Well Stakes on 1/29 with a 111 figure, having earned the same 113 figures at the two other contenders in their representative efforts twice in the past couple of years. As such, Unzip Me is a must to use on any pick 3, 4 or similar tickets we play involving this race but as usual she’s likely to be the favorite and doesn’t offer much value as a win bet.

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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires, Keeneland Select and TVG handicapping stores.