Handicapping Picks for 03/11/2012

Race #8 - Rating = 3
#2 Izzy Rules - Fair odds 8/5
#6 Spectacular Sky - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Home Sweet Aspen - Fair odds 3/1

I’m hoping that because she’s coming out of an allowance race and her only two previous stakes tries were poor that Izzy Rules will go to post at about 3/1, because if she does she’s a KEY BET on the day. Having improved her Equibase Speed Figures in her last four races, culminating with a very strong 110 figure effort when winning by 6 last out on 2/3 over the track, Izzy Rules has the top early speed in the field and no horse is likely to want to press her early for want of compromising their own chances, thereby allowing her to setting into stride as she’s done in three straight big victories, in each flattered by the 2nd or 3rd finishers coming back to win their next starts. With a 58.8 five furlong workout coming into the race she’s showing every sign of winning her 4th in a row and her first in a stakes. Spectacular Sky and Home Sweet Aspen are next best, both coming off wins, the former by nearly 6 lengths at the first allowance level but with a 105 figure that’s actually better (faster) than the 103 Home Sweet Aspen earned winning the Grade 1 Santa Monica Stakes in her last start (1/28). Both gals have a shot to sit off the pace of Izzy Rules and get up in time if that one can’t go all the way on top.

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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires, Keeneland Select and TVG handicapping stores.