Handicapping Picks for 10/29/2011

Race #7 - Rating = 2
#7 Lucky Primo - Fair odds 2/1
#2 Norvsky - Fair odds 3/1
#6 Tamarack Smarty - Fair odds 3/1

Exacta: Box 2,6,7

Pick 3 wagers: 2,6,7 with 1,6 with 1,12
Pick 3 wagers: ALL with 1 with 12

Lucky Primo appears to have an early pace edge in the same way he did on June 23 when leading from start to finish to win the similar Golden State Cup Stakes, beating Norvsky rather handily by two and one-half lengths and earning a career best 110 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Although he tired to third after leading early in his subsequent start in the California Dreamin’ Handicap, Lucky Primo has been freshened since then. As he won the Golden State Cup off a layoff like the one he’s coming back from today, Lucky Primo has a big shot to repeat that effort good enough to win this race.

Norvsky has finished second in five of his last six races, winning the other, so there may be a question of whether he has just found one horse better than him in all those races or whether he just is more comfortable playing second fiddle. His best effort among that group came in his most recent start when second in the Ralph M. Hinds Handicap, in which Norvsky earned a career best 115 EquibaseÒ Speed Figure. His last win came two races prior to that and on the turf with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle, so today with Rafael getting back on to ride after a one race absence, Norvsky has a shot to return to the winner’s circle.

Tamarack Smarty rallied form ninth of ten to get second in his most recent race on the turf, missing the win by just a half length on the wire. Prior to that he finished fast from last of 7 to second behind Norvsky in the California Dreamin’ Handicap, both efforts with leading rider Santa Anita’s leading rider Joel Rosario in the saddle as today, Joel also having been aboard for his last win which came right before the California Dreamin’ effort. With his last effort having produced a career best 115 figure, which is the last race figure put forth by Norvsky, Tamarack Smarty rounds out a trio that appears to stick out against the rest in this year’s California Cup Classic.
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