Handicapping Picks for 10/21/2011

Race #5 - Rating = 2
#7 Melissa Rose - Fair odds 9/5
#5 Judicious - Fair odds 2/1
#8 Brown is Beige - Fair odds 3/1

Exacta: Box 5,7,8

Melissa Rose faced 3 year olds and upward last out in an allowance race where she was probably overmatched and faded to 5th after leading early. Prior to that in a 3 year old only claimer just like this one she dominated to win by almost 5 lengths and back in against the same kind she’s got a big shot of winning the same way.

Judicious shows the same pattern as the top pick but in her case has faced older and allowance types in two straight, having won 3 back under very similar conditions to today’s, the latter of the two with Pat V in the saddle as today as well, so she’s got a fine shot of returning to competitive form good enough to win back against her own age group only.

Brown is Beige enters the race off a 2 month rest, hoping to run as she did right before the slight layoff when winning gamely by a nose in a sprint. That was her first start off the claim by Pender and first with jockey Maldonado in the saddle, so she certainly has a big shot of being in the hunt at the wire again, particularly as she’s only been worse than 2nd two times in 9 career races.
________________________________________
Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires and TVG handicapping stores.