Handicapping Picks for 10/20/2011

Race #6 - Rating = 2
#6 Shem - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Isle of Prado - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Moudez - Fair odds 3/1

Exacta: Box 5,6,7

Shem loves to win races, and is competitive even when he doesn’t now with 10 wins in 39 races and 25 in-the-money finishes. He led late and ended up 3rd at this mile turf trip on 8/28 when not 100% ready to race following a year on the bench and after cutting back to a sprint for his next start on 10/2 he appears all set to stretch out once again and do well, particularly as he’s reunited with Gutierrez, who rode him in the Northwest and who is a rock solid jockey who has won with nearly 30% of his 300 mounts this year to date.

Isle of Prado missed by a head one before last on the turf versus tougher and is one of only two horses in the field with a win this year so for the top Mitchell barn and with a Garcia riding him back after getting to know him when aboard for the first time in his recent 4th place effort to tougher he’s got a big shot of being part of the exacta at the very least.

Moudez is the other horse with a win this year, 3 of them to be exact, in 8 races, so he certainly has to be respected, particularly as all three wins have come on the turf, in his last four races. With Bejarano getting on and having won 7 of 16 career grass races, Moudez rounds out our trio of contenders that stick out against the rest in this event.

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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires and TVG handicapping stores.