Handicapping Picks for 10/13/2011

Race #7 - Rating = 3
#2 Starspangled Heat - Fair odds 9/5
#4 Bluegrass Reward - Fair odds 2/1

Exacta: 2,4 over 1,2,3,4 (1 is Lodi Red, 3 is Caper’s Edge)
Daily Double: 2 over 2,6,7,9,14

Starspangled Heat might have won last time out on 9/5 under identical conditions if not for a poor ride, not really in the right position to win at any stage, coming out and rallying late but too late, beaten 2 lengths at the wire. With a BIG jockey change to Pat V he’s got a fine shot to return to the form shown before that when winning nicely on the turf, moving through this allowance condition today.

Bluegrass Reward is the top pick’s biggest threat, having finished 3rd of 10 last out at the level on the main track, beaten just a neck and nose for 2nd and in a race from which the winner came back to win again. He has run well on turf before, 2nd the last time he raced on the sod, and with Blinkers and Talamo going on for Mitchell he could move up nicely and also has a big shot at winning.
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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card (and Keeneland) at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires and TVG handicapping stores.