Handicapping Picks for 10/09/2011

Race 5
#6 Red Alert Day - Fair odds 2/1
#3 Isle of Prado – Fair odds 2/1
#7 War Element – Fair odds 2/1

Red Alert Day has earned all 6 career wins on turf, including a win on 7/7 at this10 furlong trip. He has earned 3 of his 6 wins on this turf course at Santa Anita, and coming into the race off a nose defeat two races following the O’Neill claim and likely to improve off that effort he could be tough to beat.

Isle of Prado ran her best race ever last out when leading late and beaten a head on the wire, 2nd off the Mitchell claim. Earning a career best 102 Equibase Speed Figure with that effort, he could take another step forward and particularly as he could be stronger on the cut back from 11 furlongs to 10 furlongs he could be right there at the wire.

War Element dominated by 8 lengths in his 2nd career start, on the main track, on 8/24, when returning from 7 lengths off. He could very well be a stakes winner before too long, but the best time to beat a favorite is when they are trying something for the 1st time, which is today as he’s running 10 furlongs and facing winners, some multiple winners at the same time. I’d use him on pick 3 and 4 tickets played but otherwise hope one of the other two contenders prevails.