Handicapping Picks for 10/07/2011

Race #7 - Rating = 2
#8 Chokecherymary - Fair odds 5/2
#11 Last Sting - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Born Lucky - Fair odds 3/1

Exactas: 8 over 2,3,4,11 and (reverse) 2,3,4,11 over 8

Chokecherymary stretched out to 2 turns and tried turf for the first time last out on 8/24 and the result was a strong 3 length win in Cal –bred NW1X allowance company. With improving to do in her 3rd start off a layoff and 2nd in a turf route she can win again, even in open (not state restricted) company so he gets slight preference in a pretty deep field for the level.

Last Sting shipped down from Golden Gate in July after 2 months off and won gamely by a head at this mile turf trip to break his maiden, then next out on 8/17 at this NW1X allowance level she rallied from 4th to lead late and ended up beaten just ¾ of a length at the end. With Quinonez up for both of those “A” efforts and riding again this filly figures to be part of the exacta at the very least in this situation.

Born Lucky broke her maiden last out on 8/28 on turf in her sixth career start and after a pair of 2nd place finishes on the sod as well. She’s not run a bad race since first trying two-turns in July and another competitive effort is forecast so she rounds out the main group of contenders in this field.

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You can get my selections and analysis for the entire Santa Anita card at www.equibase.com, www.trackmaster.com as well as at the Xpressbet, Twinspires and TVG handicapping stores.