jsiegel's blog

A massive $419,541 Pick-6 Carryover awaits players on a challenging Thursday program.

The first two races look chalky. #1 Sergeant O’Rourke returns to the claiming ranks in the opener and seems well-spotted to regain her winning form. She scored in her only start over this main track during the autumn meeting, has steadily improving speed figures, switches to Bejarano, and continues to look sharp in the morning for Miller. If she breaks cleanly from the rail the daughter of Forestry should be able to justify her favorite’s role.

A $92,243 Pick-6 carryover adds plenty of incentive to a strong Monday holiday program.

The opener, a middle distance claimer for fillies and mares, appears to have two main contenders, #1 Sister Glady Oh and #5 Amulay. The former drops to a realistic level, stretches out again and is overdue to regain her winning form. The latter has been popular at the claim box recently and could be dangerous if she can establish the pace without undue pressure.

A decent Sunday card starts out slowly but picks up steam midway and offers several attractive wagering opportunities.

The opener drew a six-runner field that contains little depth; #5 She’s a Go Girl seems like a trier and has that blinkers-off-angle working for her so we’ll put her on top. You should also consider Kitchingman’s other entrant, #1 Woodlandsway, a conditioned winner for this price tag across town last month and probably capable of improving a bit.

An attractive Saturday program begins with an inscrutable race – anybody can win the opener – and if you’re playing rolling exotics we suggest you use as many as you can afford to. #4 Second Time and #7 Clearly Confused both have credentials but neither one is trustworthy. The former once could run a bit but hasn’t been out since November of 2012 while the latter has failed twice in a row as the favorite. They could run one-two or end up nowhere.

Friday’s program begins with a 3-year-old filly claiming sprint that attracted just five runners. #3 Frandontjudge returns to her claim level after a starter’s allowance win across town and based on speed figures is realistically spotted. However, at 6/5 on the morning line she offers little value. #1 Time for Angie looks like the best of the closers and was actually stakes-placed earlier in her career. There’s not much to work with here.

A new week of racing begins with a maiden turf miler that seems ideal for #2 Presenceofagenius. A closing third in his sprint debut last month, the son of Sky Mesa should improve considerably with the switch to Stevens and the stretch-out in trip and sports a bullet workout since raced. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and could very go lower.

The Sunday opener is a mid-grade claiming turf miler that looks likely to be won by #5 Trelawny. The Mullins-trained gelding stretches out to a more suitable trip over a course he’s been known to like and most likely will draft into an ideal second-flight position. Baze should have him along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

An excellent Saturday program begins with a high priced maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. #6 Matt the Hammer has been impressive in the morning for Miller (excellent with first-timers) and looks cranked up and ready to win right now. He seems like a logical gate-to-wire winner under P. Val and offers value at anywhere near his morning line of 5/2.

The Friday program begins with a five-runner field that doesn’t offer much in the way of value. #1 She’s a Go Girl represents inside speed and is in good form, so she’s the one to beat. #3 Coco de Carchy plummets in class and has figures that make her a major player. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

There’s an $87,195 Pick-6 carryover for the Thursday program that looks challenging but is well worth going after.