jsiegel's blog

A terrific Saturday program opens with an apparent standout in the first race, a downhill starter’s allowance turf sprint. #4 Yankee Rebel hasn’t won in two years – that’s hard to believe – but he continues to lay his body down and is due to breakthrough. He shortens up in trip and really has the perfect style for the course. However, at 8/5 on the morning line the Hollendorfer-trained colt doesn’t offer a whole lot of value.

There are a few interesting wagering opportunities on the Friday program for those who have the patience to wait.

The early daily double offers two races with five runner fields that offer little to no value. In the opener, #4 Oneandonlyloveman and #2 Taken by Surprise are preferred in that order but both will be short prices and neither one can be considered trustworthy. In the second race, #5 Justa Gusta gets the slight nod over #2 Fit to Rule and if you’re playing rolling exotics we would use both while trying to beat the morning line favorite, #1 Shoer High.

Sometimes you love a card, sometimes you don’t. This is one of those “don’t” days for me, so we’ll pick our spots and try to grind out a profit with a conservative strategy.

#2 Mr. Cactus seems fairly logical in the opener – he retains Bejarano, has back numbers that can win and should be able to wear down the speed – but his short odds likely will reflect his lack of competition more than anything that he’s accomplished. There’s little to work with here.

The Super Bowl Sunday eight-race program begins early with an 11 a.m. first post.

The known element isn’t much in the opener, so we’ll go with #2 Mahogany Run strongly on top. The Spawr-trained gelding finally makes it to the race at age four and it seems significant that he shows up for $50,000, rather than at the bottom ($20,000). The works are solid and the barn does well with first timers. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near his 2-1 morning line odds.

The Saturday program begins with an early daily double that looks very difficult. #3 Senator Bob and #4 Dunmore East look like the logical contenders in the opener, but neither one is trustworthy. In the second race, #3 Boller Bomb, #4 Fantastic Mizz, and #5 Silver Hustle all have a right to win but they’re tough to separate and in a small field none really offer a great degree of value. Play if you like, but we’re going to wait for better opportunities later on the day.

Pick-6 players will be enticed by a $70,442 carryover on a challenging Friday program.

The opener, a restricted (nw-2) claiming miler for fillies and mares, has #4 Second Time and #7 Secret Memo as the two main contenders. Second Time had a rough trip in her recent sprint comeback and did well to finish second in her first start since November of 2012; she should be fitter and stronger today for Cerin while stretching out to a distance she’s proven she can handle.

The Thursday eight-race program begins with a six-runner claimer over a mile on turf. #3 Mega Heat returns to his favorite surface and we’re expecting him to return to winning form. He’s been sparingly raced of late and certainly has his issues but there’s no panicky drop so we’re assuming he’s okay. #6 Anythingscookin is a need-the-lead type and if he can get that kind of trip without undue pressure he could take this field a long way.

A massive $430,875 Pick-6 Carryover makes Sunday’s card a “must play” and the sequence (races 4 through 9) appears manageable. Let’s dive in.

A $74,221 Pick-6 carryover highlights a terrific 10-race, stakes dominated Saturday program that begins early with a Noon first post.

Debuting #1 Well Mannered has trained well enough to win at first asking in the opener, a maiden state-bred sprint. Miller has an outstanding record with debut runners and this gelding has worked like he’s fit and ready. In a below par field for the level, the son of Benchmark figures to be a short price.

The first two races on Friday’s program contain no-value short priced morning line favorites that look hard to deny. #4 Corinthian Melody (3/5) tries to graduate in her 11th career start in the opener and will never get an easier spot; we’d like to try to beat her but with what? In the second race, #4 Dance With Fate (4/5) exits three consecutive Grade-1 races while dropping into a first-level allowance affair in his sophomore debut and should out class the field. #3 Flagman might provide a threat if he gets the patient ride he needs from Talamo.