jsiegel's blog

As this is written it is unsure whether there will be racing on turf. However, for the purpose of this analysis, we’ll assume the races will remain on grass.
Lord Vronsky seeks his third straight win in the Friday opener but is actually dropping a notch off a Spawr claim, and hasn’t had a registered work for almost a month. He’s 4/5 on the morning line, so regardless of whether he’s healthy or not, he offers no value. Cabo Chico was 4/5 against Lord Vronsky when they met last time out and wound up fourth, but today lands a more comfortable outside post and seems capable bouncing back. If you’re looking to play the race, he might be the safer of the two, though a better strategy might simply be to pass the race.
The Thursday program begins with what appears to be an early daily double that could up rather chalky. Kingsbury drops from a very strong straight maiden race to a rather weak maiden claimer and is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. He seems to lack any early speed and he’ll have to overcome the rail but he almost rates top billing by default. In a race that somebody has to win, he has credentials, but not enough to warrant a play at a short price. Let’s pass the race and look for better opportunities.
A challenging Sunday program begins with a challenging entry-level allowance affair at nine furlongs on turf. Alley Hondro draws a much better post in his second off a claim for Ellis and retains Talamo. He’s never been all that successful over this turf course but in this league he’s good enough to pose a serious threat with his best effort. Unusual Jazz is our top pick and one to beat. A repeat of his race before would be good enough. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
The Big ‘Cap’s 11-race card is terrific – the best of the season – and begins straight up at Noon.

In the opener, Storm Fighter has improving form for Headley and a style that should project well over a distance of ground. He has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and continues to impress in the morning. In a below par field for the level, the son of Stormin Fever looks ready to graduate, but at 8/5 on the morning line offers little value in the straight pool. We’ll use him as a rolling exotic single.
A Pick-6 carryover of $44,521 awaits players on the first day of March.
The Thursday program begins with a modest maiden claimer that might be best left alone. Cold Bay is a 12-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but he’s a major contender pretty much by default. A repeat of his last race might be good enough. Gifted Prince has been away forever but returns in an extremely soft spot and attracts Bejarano. Unlike the rest of these, he’s pretty much unexposed. You can usee both in your rolling exotics or simply pass the race.
A Pick-6 carryover of $100,001 awaits players on a challenging Sunday program.
An excellent Saturday program begins with a rather modest maiden claimer. Night Teller already has had nine chances and isn’t fast on numbers, but the Machowsky-trained filly looks the best of this bottom rung maiden claiming field by default. She’ll never get an easier chance, but she’s hardly one to trust. We’ll put her on top while expecting her to produce the last run at this extended sprint trip but a simple pass might be the better way to go.
Iron Joe T returns from the Bay Area and while he’s never had any success over this main track, he’s with his friends in today’s first race and we’re expecting a major performance. Effective as a late-running sprinter, he has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and surfaces in a restricted claimer after chasing open company at Golden Gate Fields. We like him as a straight play and rolling exotic single.