February 2012

The Sunday opener is a maiden dash for 3-year-old fillies and has two main contenders. #1 Tiz the Tide has trained smartly for her comeback for Baffert and very likely will be a better type this time around. That was a nice race she finished third in last summer and Baffert seems to have her fit and ready for a big effort off the bench. Nihilist is strictly the one to beat. The Sadler-trained filly may have needed her recent comeback but shouldn’t have any excuses today. She’s trained sharply since that outing, retains Rosario, and should have the front end all to herself.

The Saturday program begins slowly with regards to wagering value but picks up steam midway. The opener is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and should boil down to #2 Ziva and #5 Big Tsimmis. The former is making just her third career start so improvement is likely, and the Owens-trained filly will offer strong inside speed, while the latter should draft into a second flight, stalking position and have every chance to wear down the front runners late.

Light fields dominate the Friday program but there’s a carryover in the Pick-6 of $71,097 to make things quite interesting.

The Thursday program begins with a below average maiden sprint down the hill for fillies and mares. #4 Elusive Cookies (winless in eight starts) looks like the best of the known element, while #6 Afleet Slew has trained well enough to score at first asking but comes from a stable that doesn’t have a reputation for winning with debut runners. Of the two we’d probably prefer the newcomer but this is hardly any kind of prime play.

The early part of today’s President’s Day program is light in value; the fields are the small and the payoffs potentially short. #7 Baron Von Red is even money on the morning line in the opener and will be hard to beat if he runs back to his very sharp second place performance at this level last month. Rosario stays aboard for Sadler so he’s almost guaranteed to leave at odds on. Let’s pass.

The Sunday opener is a middle distance mid-grade claimer for fillies and mares and in a small field the favorites seem logical. #4 R Vicarious Girl is an old pro in the Mitchell barn dropping two levels in class in her second start off a layoff and clearly looks like the controlling speed. She’s back on the main track while retaining Garcia and has a nice easy breeze since her last race.

The Sunday opener is a middle distance mid-grade claimer for fillies and mares and in a small field the favorites seem logical. #4 R Vicarious Girl is an old pro in the Mitchell barn dropping two levels in class in her second start off a layoff and clearly looks like the controlling speed. She’s back on the main track while retaining Garcia and has a nice easy breeze since her last race.

An excellent 10-race Saturday program begins with a bottom rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares at one mile. There’s not much to work with here, but rest assured better opportunities are available later on. #2 Golden Nip is slow on numbers but comes off a decent runner up try at the level and looks pretty solid, though she’s 8/5 on the morning line and offers no value at that price. #7 Plazarita was overmatched vs. straight maidens recently but has back numbers that make her a threat and retains bug boy Flores. She could be a late threat in a weak affair.

The three day holiday weekend begins with a Friday program that offers a few attractive wagering opportunities. We’ll try to pick our spots.

A very windy Thursday program begins with a modest maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies. The two main contenders as we see it are the first timer #2 Footnotedisclosure, working well for Hofmans and looking very live pretty much by default, and #4 Nifty Drream, a cheap speed type who should stick much better at this abbreviated five furlong trip. Preference to the new face who will carry those famed Seattle Slews silks of Karen and Mickey Taylor.

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